Parking overhaul! Involving more than 30 million tons of production capacity! The highest increase is 119333 yuan / ton

Parking overhaul! Involving more than 30 million tons of production capacity!

Since August this year, the number of domestic PP device maintenance has continued to increase, stopping and overhauling 50 production lines, involving a production capacity of up to 11.

The loss per ton exceeds 2,000 yuan, and the enterprise is overhauled and upgraded

For the factory, August maintenance is not a good choice, August in all regions of the country in high temperature and rainy weather, continuous high temperature, heavy rain, thunder and other weather occurs from time to time, maintenance is more difficult, the device generally does not choose to overhaul

However, in the third quarter, the amount of equipment maintenance losses has repeatedly reached a new high

From August 19, 2022 to August 25, 2022, pp unit maintenance involved a production capacity of 6.

On August 29, Lanzhou Petrochemical Yulin Chemical 400,000 tons / year full density PP device stopped; 400,000 tons / year low voltage unit shutdown

Ningbo Yongxing 70,000 tons / year PP powder device is still under shutdown and maintenance, and the company is currently suspending the quotation

Ningxia Baofeng PP plant phase I 300,000 tons / year plant production K8003; The second phase of the 300,000 tons /year plant will produce L5E89, and it is planned to start parking and maintenance for about

The Sino-Angolan joint PP unit (350,000 tons/year) will be shut down for maintenance for a period of 45 days and is scheduled to restart

Heilongjiang Haiguolong Oil Petrochemical first-line 200,000 tons / year PP device from February 8 to stop maintenance, the second line 350,000 tons / year device from April 3 parking maintenance, driving time is undecided, there is no quotation

According to incomplete statistics, since August this year, the number of domestic PP device maintenance has continued to increase, stopping and overhauling 50 production lines, involving production capacity of up to 11.

Industry insiders believe that for the past, August is usually the end of the maintenance season, followed by the traditional peak season demand of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", but this year's maintenance is obviously longer and involves a wider

The main reason for centralized maintenance is that corporate profits continue to decline, and even losses

In June 2022, the average cost of oil-based PP was 11383 yuan / ton, the average profit price was -2707 yuan / ton, the average price of oil-made PP cost in July was 10502 yuan / ton, the average profit price was -2256 yuan / ton, the cost fell by 7.

Industry insiders analysis said that this year's industry profits are generally poor, the amount of equipment maintenance has increased significantly compared with previous years, taking the polyester industry chain as an example, as of now, from PX-PTA, ethylene glycol to polyester, the load of industry devices is lower than the same period in the past 5 years, of which the load of PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, mainly due to weak demand leading to generally poor

At the same time, shrinking consumption is a major reason for

"Golden Nine Silver Ten" came to whether the PP market can usher in a turnaround

Although the current maintenance devices are still in more, but from the perspective of future plans, the early parking devices have been driven one after another, there are not many new parking devices planned, and the demand for jinjiuyin ten storage is expected to be good, some maintenance plans are canceled, polypropylene began to slowly increase in August, as of August 25, 2022, although the weekly output of polypropylene has not yet returned to the level before the autumn inspection, it is close to the 2021 production data

It is estimated that from August 29, 2022 to September 4, 2022, the north China petrochemical single line (100,000 tons / year), Qinghai Salt Lake (160,000 tons / year), Daqing Haiding single line (100,000 tons / year), Fushun petrochemical old plant (90,000 tons / year), Lanzhou petrochemical old plant (40,000 tons / year) will restart driving, when the weekly output of polypropylene or will return to the level before the autumn inspection
.

However, it is worth noting that although the parking devices have been restarted one after another, the northwest region has been affected by public health events, and the coal mines in Yulin, Shenmu and Fugu in Shaanxi have been seriously affected; The first-line transportation from Ningxia Inner Mongolia to Shaanxi has also been greatly affected
.

The data shows that the production capacity of coal chemical enterprises in the northwest region accounts for more than 20% of the total production capacity of polypropylene, so it may affect the production and transportation of coal chemical enterprises in the northwest region, causing some supply of polypropylene in the market or will be tight, which will further push up PP prices
.

In fact, on August 29, a number of coal-to-PP companies have raised prices
in some areas.
Among them, Jiutai Group raised 20 yuan / ton nationwide today, and the factory price was 7680 yuan / ton
.
Ningxia Baofeng today raised the low-melt copolymerization by 30 yuan / ton nationwide, of which 8190 yuan / ton
in East China.
Shenhua Ning Coal raised all PP categories by 30 yuan / ton - 60 yuan / ton, of which north China was the highest, and the price of random co-aggregation reached 8450 yuan / ton
.

In addition, from the downstream point of view, although the current operating rate of the downstream industry of polypropylene has not yet made a big improvement, but with the reduction of high temperature weather, the downstream enterprises due to power rationing and parking gradually resume production, downstream orders will have a slight improvement, superimposed "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is coming, polypropylene demand or will rebound
.

However, for the future trend, some insiders have a neutral pessimistic view of this year's peak season demand, believing that there may be a month-on-month improvement, but the range may be limited
.
Because as the weather turns colder, the power curtailment gradually ends, and the impact of downstream demand restriction weakens
.
Downstream finished product inventories are high, and even if demand improves during the peak season, finished product inventories
must be consumed.

The future of polyolefins is mainly a game between supply increment and demand, and the market also needs to pay attention to the performance of
crude oil.

At present, crude oil supported by a number of OPEC oil producers Saudi Arabia's production cut remarks began to pull back and rise, as of the close of August 26: October WTI rose 0.
54 to $93.
06 / barrel, an increase of 0.
58%; Brent rose 1.
65 at $100.
99 a barrel in October, or 1.
66 percent
.
China crude oil futures SC main 2210 closed up 0.
4 yuan / barrel, to 740.
3 yuan / barrel
.

In summary, international oil prices rebounded strongly, and cost support strengthened; The devices have been restarted one after another, but the production and transportation of coal chemical enterprises in the northwest region have been affected, and the supply of coal-to-polypropylene may be tight, and the supply surface is good; Superimposed "Golden Nine Silver Ten", downstream orders improve, the demand side rebounds, under the joint action, the polypropylene market or will usher in a
turnaround.

The highest rise 119333 yuan / ton!

Crude oil broke through 100, Saudi Arabia warned: to reduce production!

Recently, the price of crude oil has risen, and on the 23rd, Brent crude oil closed at $100.
11 / barrel (up 3.
55%), and the price that was hard to drop rose back
.

Brent Crude Oil:

Recently, there was good news from the Iranian nuclear agreement, and Iranian oil is expected to return to the market, but at the same time, according to 9 OPEC+ sources, when Iranian oil returns to the market, OPEC+ may tend to cut oil production
.
Saudi Arabia's energy minister also clearly sent a signal
to the market that "production cuts may be in the future".
The return of Iranian oil is still far away, and many parties have already sent "warnings" of production cuts, so it seems that the tight situation of crude oil will continue
.

How the energy crisis will impact the chemical industry chain

First of all, the cost of higher commodity prices will increase significantly, many manufacturers will fail because they cannot afford high gas costs, and the high price of electricity will lead to a sharp reduction in production in energy-intensive industries

Producers are not able to produce at full capacity, and zinc and aluminium smelting capacity in Europe has been reduced by about half
.

Riedel, the world's oldest glassmaker, is preparing to shut down and shut down
.

The Dutch Budel Smelter, one of Europe's largest smelters, announced that it will enter maintenance and repair status
from September 1 due to rising energy costs.

Slovakian Aluminium plans to put work on hold until September, as smelting ore to produce metallic aluminium is one
of the most energy-intensive industrial processes.

At present, many of China's key basic chemical materials still rely on imports, and once imports are blocked, the production of China's plastic chemical enterprises will also be limited
.
At the same time, there are many chemical manufacturers in Europe (BASF, Bayer, LANXESS, etc.
), if the energy crisis breaks out in Europe, price increases and supply crises may hit
us together.

In fact, the phased mismatch between supply and demand mentioned in the article, the sharp fluctuations in the price of some supply chains, etc.
, there are not a few
cases of hoarding in individual links.
Year-to-date, the price of a variety of raw materials in the photovoltaic industry chain has soared
.

Polysilicon quotation of 295333.
34 yuan / ton, up 119333.
34 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 67.
8%;

The average price of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is 20,000 yuan / ton, and the gross profit of production enterprises to ton rose by 2,000 yuan to 9,900 yuan from last week, an increase of 3,020 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 17.
79%;

EVA quotation 20166.
67 yuan / ton, up 1366.
67 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 7.
27%

Styrene, the raw material, led the rise in the commodity market

It is worth mentioning that due to the impact of crude oil shocks and the double decline in domestic LPR, commodities rose more and fell less on
Monday.
As of the afternoon close, styrene futures 2210 contracts led the rise in commodities
.
In this regard, there are professional analysis, styrene rise:

First, crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, which boosted the price of styrene on the cost side
.

Second, styrene starts to decline and supply contraction, while the downstream start of the recovery just needs to increase, while entering the end of the month spot has a demand for filling, styrene supply and demand is expected to improve in stages, supporting the low price rebound
.

However, the price of the styrene main contract has continued to fall since June, giving back all the gains
since this year.
So, what causes the sharp fluctuations in styrene futures? Some analysts believe that the main reason is the result of the combination of
weak costs and loose supply and demand.

It is reported that at present, styrene due to the unplanned shutdown and reduction of the burden of the device, the output contracted month-on-month, and the main port in East China is expected to go to the warehouse
in late August.
However, downstream starts rebounded month-on-month, and there was a demand for shortfall in the spot market at the end of the month, and styrene just needed to increase
.

The supply and demand side of styrene improved month-on-month, but the terminal demand did not improve substantially, which will still suppress the downstream profit repair and start-up recovery space
.
Moreover, on the cost side, crude oil will continue to oscillate weakly, pure benzene production and imports will increase, demand will be weak, its price will be limited, and support for styrene will be limited
.

In late August, the increase in the supply and contraction of styrene supported its price rebound, but due to the relatively weak cost, the terminal demand did not materially improve, and it is expected that the height of the styrene rebound will be limited
.

Mitsubishi Chemical released a letter of price increase in September

Following Coraly and Sumitomo Chemical, another Japanese plastic company announced that it has joined the "price increase tide"!

On August 19, Mitsubishi Chemical Group announced that it will raise the price
of polystyrene (PS) shrink film "DXL Film" from September 1.
The increase was 50 yen/kg (about 2487 yuan/ton
).

Reasons for this price increase:

The business environment is deteriorating
as the price of raw materials rises due to soaring market prices for crude oil and naphtha, as well as higher costs such as maintenance costs and distribution costs of production facilities.
Despite the Company's continuous efforts to streamline its business, it was determined that it would be difficult to provide a stable supply of products under the current price system and decided to implement the revision
.