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Since mid-March, PVC September contracts have continued to increase positions downward, moving average system short market arrangement, April position transfer accelerated, futures prices also began to accelerate the decline, market sentiment affected each other and self-reinforcing
.
From the perspective of the long-term trend, PVC rose for a long time last year, and there is a need
for pullbacks and shock sorting.
In the medium and long term, the futures price shows a wide range of fluctuations, accelerating downward after losing the important psychological threshold of 6,000 points
.
Since mid-March, the futures price has fallen almost without rebound, and in the context of technical overselling, the futures price rebounded sharply at the 5500 mark, and the bears' urgent need to cash in pushed up the futures price
.
On the macro front, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first quarter increased by 6.
9% year-on-year, compared with 6.
8% in the previous month and 6.
8%
expected.
The added value of industries above designated size in March was 7.
6% year-on-year, 6.
2% expected, and 6.
3%
in the previous February.
The cumulative investment in urban fixed assets in March was 9.
2% year-on-year, 8.
8% expected, and 8.
9%
in the previous month.
Total retail sales of consumer goods in March were 10.
9% year-on-year, 9.
7% expected, and 10.
9%
in the previous month.
The actual year-on-year GDP growth rate of 6.
9% in the first quarter was better than expected, hitting a new high in one and a half years; The nominal growth rate was 11.
8% year-on-year, a new high
in nearly five years.
In March, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size improved significantly year-on-year, and the economic trend was significant
.
Industrial added value in March increased by 7.
6% year-on-year, significantly better than market expectations of 6.
2% and 6.
3% in the previous month, a sharp increase of 1.
3 percentage points over the previous two months; The month-on-month growth rate was 0.
83%, a new high
in two and a half years.
The industrial economy is strong and the upward trend is significant
.
On the supply and demand side, the domestic PVC spot market has maintained a weak balance since March, and experienced a round of panic selling from the end of last week to the beginning of this week, and the market balance was broken, but then the futures price rebounded in retaliation, and the spot sentiment improved significantly
.
The PVC market quotation in East China is weak and stable, and the 5-type ordinary calcium carbide PVC self-mentioned reference quotation is 5500-5580 yuan / ton, and then the high quotation is also difficult to trade, the actual order is mostly negotiated transactions, and some low-priced goods have fallen below 5500 yuan / ton
from the quotation.
The PVC market in Hebei is flat, the downstream demand is not good, on-demand procurement is the mainstay, and the transaction price continues to loosen
.
Type 5 material does not include tax 5000-5100 yuan / ton delivery, including tax 5430-5540 yuan / ton delivery, some lower prices are also heard
.
At present, most of the chlor-alkali enterprises in the central and eastern regions represented by the price Shandong region have suffered losses as a whole, so the possibility of later maintenance or production reduction will increase, but the overall profitability of enterprises in Inner Mongolia is still very impressive
.
From the perspective of cost line alone, there is a certain cost support for PVC to fall to the current price, but for northwest enterprises with a high proportion, the current PVC price will not pose obvious pressure
on enterprises.
In the medium and long term, with the shift of real estate policies, the growth rate of real estate transactions will slow down, which will eventually lead to the overall weakening of long-term building materials demand; However, we need to note that the probability of a cliff-like decline in real estate transactions in a short period of time is still small, and the current data has not yet been verified; And from the transaction link to the downstream building materials demand and price performance, there is a certain time difference, through observation, it is found that this time difference is generally 3-6 months, or even longer
.
Therefore, at least from the current cycle, the back-end demand of the building still has a certain foundation, especially the lag effect of the demand for decoration and decoration in the later stage, which will make this part of the demand show a slow release characteristic, that is, short-term demand will not appear cliff-like reduction
.
Even if the trend demand decreases, then according to the lag of the time cycle, then the performance of building materials demand in this year's peak season cycle will not be too bad, on the contrary, next year will face greater downside risks
.
