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Yesterday, the internal and external aluminum markets were volatile to the downside, with Shanghai aluminum closing down 1.
28% and Lun aluminum closing down 0.
27%.
In the domestic market, the aluminum ingot society on Monday was about 18,000 tons, with oversupply in the short term, weak fundamentals, and a strong
bearish sentiment in the market.
In addition, the repeated epidemic at home and abroad, the turbulent political landscape in the United States, and the risk sentiment above the market are shrouded
.
The overall transaction volume of the spot market is weak, and the price decline has also made more aluminum plants accelerate the sales of finished products, and the pattern of weak supply and demand on the margin is expected to be maintained in the short term, and downstream processing enterprises are more optimistic about the order situation
after the Spring Festival.
In the future, in the case of clear inventory accumulation, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to move further down, and the domestic epidemic situation and the subsequent accumulation range will have a greater impact
on aluminum prices.
Aluminum ingot stocks recorded 676,000 mt on Monday, up 12,000 mt
from last Thursday.
From the perspective of processing links, the processing rate of aluminum continues to differentiate, building profiles, cables, etc.
continue to weaken due to seasonality, and the automotive sector, especially new energy vehicles, orders are better, driving the demand for corresponding aluminum strips and casting alloys, in addition, the packaging and electronics fields remain stable, and overall aluminum demand shows a seasonal decline
.
On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to grow, while the import window closes in the middle of the week, and the impact of subsequent primary aluminum imports will be significantly reduced
.
Short-term fundamentals face the impact of price short-term dominance, seasonal weakening of demand and the continuous upward supply to drive the accumulation in the first quarter obviously, aluminum price low inventory support gradually weakened, aluminum prices will be under pressure to pullback, it is recommended that short orders continue to hold, if macro optimism interference leads to a significant rebound of aluminum prices can be sold short, pay attention to the actual accumulation range and macro sentiment
.
