Overcapacity coming early? Small anode factories have staged a "price war" and the trend of price reduction is gradually emerging

Negative electrode materials vigilant overcapacity has been reverberating in the industry for a long time, and recently some industry insiders revealed that the overcapacity of small anode factories has staged a small-scale "price war"
.
It is understood that the price decline of small factories has not yet been transmitted to the head enterprises, and many head enterprises said that they are still in full production, and the supply of products exceeds demand
.

Compared with the shortage in the first half of the year, the release of anode materials and graphitization capacity is now more than expected, and many leading companies have said that the shortage of graphitization capacity has eased
.
Chang Ke, an anode material analyst at Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, said that graphitization capacity has shown obvious signs of excess, and it is expected that the price of graphitization will drop to 20,000 yuan / ton at the end of this year, in addition, it is expected that there will be a surplus of anode material general products in 2023, but the overall demand is still prosperous
.

A relevant person of Shanshan shares said: "If the price of graphitization shows a large decline next year, the price of negative electrode products will also be adjusted
based on cost reduction and industry pricing principles.
" ”

"Small factory price war", many leading enterprises said that they were not affected, and the supply of products exceeded demand

In the second quarter of this year, the overall supply of the anode material industry is in short supply, and some leading enterprises have raised prices, and it is expected that the annual finished product gap will be 300,000-400,000 tons
.
However, recently, some industry insiders said that small anode material manufacturers have overcapacity and have a price war
.

It is reported that the price decline of small factories has not yet been transmitted to the head enterprises, and the head anode manufacturers are still in full production and in short supply
.

Relevant people of Shanshan shares said that at present, the company's orders are full and the production capacity is close to full production
.
According to the company's capacity release progress this year, it is expected that the effective production capacity of this year will be 150,000-170,000 tons, and the company's current shipments are consistent
with the effective production capacity scale as a whole.

For the price decline caused by the excess shipments of small anode factories, whether it will spread to the head enterprises, relevant people of Shanshan Co.
, Ltd.
further analyzed that the company's products are mainly positioned at the middle and high end, and there will be a certain difference
between the price of the middle and low end products.

Han Zhongwei, secretary of Putella, also said at the third quarter results meeting that the company's capacity utilization rate of anode materials in the third quarter remained at full production level
.
At present, the market demand for anode materials continues to be strong, and the supply of products exceeds demand, and the company is accelerating the construction of 200,000 tons of anode material integration capacity construction project
in Sichuan Zichen.

In addition, people from the relevant securities department of Zhongke Electric have also said that the company is currently in full production, and the supply of products exceeds demand
.

For the difference in the price of products between the head anode factory and the non-head anode factory, Chang Ke analyzed, the price of small anode material enterprises has decreased, on the one hand, in addition to the cooperative battery factory, some of the finished products will be delivered to the head anode material factory for granulation, mixing and other process quality optimization treatment, and the head factory is purchased
at a low price in order to reduce costs.

On the other hand, most of the anode material products of small enterprises are ordinary products, with uneven quality and unstable shipments, so that there is excess shipment, which forces the price to fall
.
In the future, with the increase of the production capacity of the head large factories, it is bound to eliminate the production capacity
of some small factories.

The release of production capacity exceeded expectations, and the trend of price reduction of graphitization and anode materials gradually appeared

However, even the head anode factory, its products are not without the possibility of price reduction, with the release of more finished products and graphitization capacity, the current shortage of anode materials and graphitization capacity has been eased compared with the first half of the year, according to Shanghai Steel Union data, anode raw materials, graphitization processing and finished product prices have decreased
compared with the first half of the year.

Graphitization is a key link in the production and preparation of artificial graphite, occupying the main cost of anode material production, previously due to the shortage of production capacity, graphitization outsourcing processing fee gradually climbed from 15,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021, the highest reached 28,000 yuan / ton in the first half of this year, and the head enterprise of anode material gave priority to graphitization capacity release to increase the proportion
of graphitization self-supply.

However, the price of graphitization outsourcing processing has fallen in the third quarter, and Shanghai Steel Union data shows that as of October 26, the average price of graphitization processing was 23,000 yuan / ton
.

According to Chang Ke's analysis, the current graphitization capacity has shown more obvious signs of excess, especially some new entrants in order to grab orders, wantonly reduce the price to the cost price of 14,000 yuan / ton, but due to the transportation obstruction or production impact caused by the cold winter weather, and the repeated epidemics in the production area, the graphitization price is expected to drop to 20,000 yuan / ton
by the end of this year.

It was learned from the securities department of Zhongke Electric that the tension of graphitization capacity in the industry has eased compared with the first half of the year, and the price of raw materials has decreased compared with the first and second quarters, but in terms of the price of negative electrode materials, the company's price is still (maintained) better
.

Liang Feng, chairman of Putella, admitted at the third quarter results meeting that the current graphitization processing supporting capacity has eased, but the carbonization processing supporting capacity is still tight
.
With the release of anode process capacity and the decline in raw material prices in the industry, the price of anode materials will also fall
in the future.

Relevant persons of Shanshan shares said that the effective capacity release will take a certain time, it is expected that next year's anode material production capacity will still be tight, but it is not ruled out that the competition for low-end production capacity will intensify, the company's products are mainly positioned at the high end, the production capacity is still tight, and there will be a certain difference
in the price of low-end products.

It continued: "If the price of graphitization next year shows a large decline, based on the decline in the cost of the negative electrode, according to the pricing principle of the negative electrode material industry products, the product price will also be adjusted
.
" But for now, "the overall production capacity is still relatively tight, and the overall price of the company's negative electrode products is stable
.
" ”

Changke analysis, overall, the supply of anode materials is tight, especially the finished products of artificial graphite anode materials still have a gap, with the European energy crisis and photovoltaic and other demand for energy storage market, the artificial graphite energy storage direction of products increased, and the production capacity release of head enterprises is bound to compress some orders of some small factories, it is expected that in 2023 there will be a surplus
of anode material general products.

"It is expected that the annual demand for anode materials will exceed 1.
2 million tons, of which Top5 shipments will exceed 890,000 tons, and the overall anode material shipments will exceed
1.
2 million tons.
With the gradual expansion of anode material production capacity, downstream demand-side battery factories have a strong willingness to reduce the price of the material end, and the subsequent anode material price will enter a substantial loosening stage, and it is expected that the price of mid-range anode material will be around
50,000 yuan / ton by the end of 2022.
Chang Ke said
.

Under the expectation of overcapacity, high-end, integrated and integrated anode plants may break through

According to incomplete statistics of high-tech lithium battery, in the first half of 2022, 29 anode materials were put into expansion projects, involving a scale of 4.
006 million tons, and the research report released by Guosheng Securities in October was calculated according to the consumption of 1200 tons per GWh, corresponding to the demand for anode materials in 2025 of about 2.
99 million tons
.

Zhongke Electric Securities Department expressed personal views that overcapacity in the industry is inevitable, overcapacity will be reshuffled throughout the industry, although small enterprises can supply anode material products, but only supply general anode material products, for customer customization, combined with customer research and development needs of products, can not be supplied in a short time
.

A person from the securities department of Zhongke Electric further said that industrial chain collaboration and industrial chain integration are a trend in the anode material industry, "We cooperate more deeply with downstream customers than our peers, and we will be more confident in the future market
.
" It is reported that after Zhongke Electric set up a joint venture with EVE Lithium Energy and CATL, the announcement in September showed that BYD also became one of
them.

Liang Feng also said that with the gradual improvement of the national economic level, the market demand is growing, and the customer's products are also being upgraded, so the demand for high-end products is rising, so for Putella, the advantages in high-end products are more prominent and will be more beneficial
.

In view of the expectation of overcapacity, which enterprises are expected to "break through", Changke analyzed, in the case of tight price supply of petroleum coke, needle coke and other coke, insufficient graphitization self-owned rate and high outsourcing processing fees, silicon-based anode, hard carbon and other new anode materials are constantly updated, downstream battery factories continue to reduce prices, etc.
, in the future, with capacity integration, raw materials and other cost advantages, innovative technical teams and advanced strategic layout of anode material enterprises have strong competitiveness
.