Overcapacity causes worries! When strong expectations meet weak reality The hot BDO road ahead geometry

The slow growth of emerging areas and the shrinking demand of traditional downstream have made BDO (1,4-butanediol), which was once a popular one, no longer prosperous
.

An executive of a related listed company in China said: "Due to the slow growth of the highly anticipated downstream degradable plastics (PBAT), the original pillar downstream spandex industry has also entered an adjustment cycle this year, making the originally hot BDO industry supply and demand contradiction appear, although the recent logistics impact of some production areas has made the BDO industry rebound to a certain extent, but it is still difficult to hide the dilemma that the industry is facing today
.
" ”

However, contrary to the current situation of the industry, industrial capital is still enthusiastic about investing in BDO projects
.
According to incomplete statistics, the annual production capacity of BDO currently planned to be under construction in China is as high as nearly 20 million tons, which also makes the market worry about the future surplus of the BDO industry again
.

Strong expectations and weak reality

As an important organic and fine chemical raw material, BDO is widely used in textile, chemical, pharmaceutical and other fields, among which the spandex industry chain has the greatest
demand.
But what really makes BDO attract much attention is the hundreds of billions of blue ocean market
behind degradable plastics.

Since 2020, with the release of favorable policies such as the new version of the plastic restriction order and the "dual carbon" strategy, relevant regulations and measures of "plastic ban" have been introduced across the country, allowing the degradable material industry to enter the fast lane
.
Relevant data show that as of the third quarter of this year, the proposed new PBAT capacity in the degradable field has reached a staggering 18 million tons / year, and the market has formed a strong expectation
that the downstream demand for BDO is about to skyrocket.

But the growth of PBAT has not materialized quickly, and the gap between expectations and shows is visible
to the naked eye.

A person from a related listed company in China said: "Since the beginning of this year, although there is no shortage of PBAT new production capacity, the overall operating situation of the industry is very low, especially since the second half of the year, the operating rate of the PBAT industry has fallen to less than 10%, and the annual output of PBAT is expected to be slightly lower than last year
.
" ”

At the same time, the downstream situation of BDO's pillar is not optimistic
.
"Due to the overall weakening of the textile industry in the downstream of spandex this year, the demand for epidemic prevention materials has also stabilized, and the spandex market has encountered a 'double kill' of price and demand, and the accumulation of the industry is obvious
.
" The aforementioned enterprise person said, "This also forces upstream raw materials to yield profits to spandex, and the market price of BDO is easy to fall and difficult to rise
.
" ”

Choice statistics show that at present, the latest price of BDO in East China is about 13,800 yuan / ton, down nearly 17,000 yuan / ton
from the beginning of the year.

The enthusiasm of industrial capital is still the same

Although the industry situation is not optimistic, the enthusiasm of industrial capital for investment in BDO projects is still high
.

According to incomplete statistics, in addition to the 6 enterprises that plan to put into operation before the end of this year, there are still 12 BDO projects under construction, with a cumulative production capacity of about 3.
6 million tons / year, and 35 proposed projects, with a total production capacity of about 12 million tons / year; In addition, there are projects that have not been clearly announced during the investigation, and according to industry estimates, the total BDO production capacity to be built in China is as high as nearly 20 million tons / year
.

Faced with such a situation, the market will naturally have doubts about whether BDO has overcapacity, but some people in the industry have expressed different views
.

"In fact, many BDO projects currently planned are matched with PBAT projects, because the industry is generally optimistic about the prospects of degradable materials, the enthusiasm for investment in its core raw material BDO is naturally relatively high, and the key to the change in the supply and demand relationship of the BDO industry in the future is the implementation speed of BDO projects and the implementation speed of PBAT projects
.
" Introduced
by a senior industry person in Shandong.

"It is certain that the implementation of the national plastic restriction order will become more and more strict, and more and more fields will also clarify the ban on non-degradable plastics, and the landing of new production capacity in the PBAT industry will also accelerate
.
" The aforementioned industry source said
.

Recently, Guan Aiguang, deputy director of the Market Supervision Department of the State Post Bureau, said at a regular press conference that by the end of 2025, non-degradable plastic packaging bags, plastic tapes, disposable plastic woven bags, etc.

will be banned at postal express outlets nationwide.

According to the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2020, by the end of this year, non-degradable plastic products will be banned from being used
in shops, pharmacies, catering, express delivery and other places in built-up areas of cities above the prefecture level and coastal areas in counties.

"On the other hand, the high price of BDO in the early stage is also one of the factors hindering the growth of the PBAT industry, and with the rational decline of BDO prices, the promotion effect of PBAT is also expected to improve, which is also a good
thing for the BDO industry.
" The aforementioned industry source further said
.