Overall supply and demand are weak Copper prices remain range-bound

On the macro front, China's financial data in January performed brightly, and the effect of stable growth gradually appeared
.
However, the US CPI in January exceeded expectations year-on-year, continuing to hit a 40-year high, expectations of interest rate hikes in the first half of the year rose sharply, the US dollar index rebounded intraday and the US stock market retreated
.

On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is temporarily abundant, spot TC rose slightly, and Peruvian copper mine production increased, raising expectations
for increased copper mine supply.
The supply of recycled copper was temporarily abundant, and the import loss of recycled copper widened, but the price spread of refined waste rose, and the absolute value exceeded the break-even point
.
Domestic warehouse receipt inventory increased, LME copper warehouse receipt inventory fell sharply, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts fell
.
Domestic spot futures premium rose, Shanghai copper near and far month discount expanded, LME copper spot premium rose
.

On the demand side, affected by the year-end holiday, the weekly copper rod operating rate before the Spring Festival holiday was 34.
54%, a sharp decrease of 22.
1%
from the previous month.
It is understood that after the Spring Festival, most copper rod enterprises will resume work normally, and the copper rod operating rate will rebound, but due to the downstream resumption time, logistics and transportation, and demand, it is expected that the recovery rate will be limited
.

At present, there is no obvious drive for fundamentals, the overall supply and demand are weak, the price maintains range fluctuations, the current macro improvement, domestic interest rate cuts, special bonds have increased significantly, and LME copper inventories have remained stable at a low level
.
To sum up, with the resumption of work after the holiday, downstream demand has slowly increased
.
Tight supply supports copper prices
.
It is expected that short-term copper price volatility will be strong
.