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Due to sluggish terminal demand, social stocks of asphalt are also accumulating recently.
The overall refinery and social inventory levels are higher than the same period in previous years.
From a seasonal perspective, the overall asphalt inventory in the early period of the second quarter will still be in a cumulative state, and the inventory turning point may appear in the middle and late second quarter.
The bitumen market in the early period of the second quarter may continue to accumulate, and the bituminous inventory in the mid to late period of the second quarter will have an inflection point.
Crude oil prices have a certain cost support for bitumen, but the upward rhythm of oil prices has slowed down significantly, which will weaken the cost drive of bitumen.
Refinery profits are low
Since the end of February, the operating load of domestic asphalt refineries has gradually recovered.
According to relevant data, the operating rate of domestic asphalt refineries rose to about 51% at the end of March.
However, higher oil prices have led to the continued decline in domestic refinery bitumen production profits, coupled with the off-season demand for bitumen, further suppressing refinery production enthusiasm.
At the same time, the supply of asphalt has gradually picked up.
Affected by the Spring Festival in February, domestic asphalt production dropped sharply.
Asphalt rigid demand is still limited
In the near future, with the warming of temperatures and the gradual launch of highway projects in the southern region, asphalt just needs to recover.
However, the current road projects are still not started, and mainly in the south, most of the road projects in the north have not started construction, and the overall rigid demand for asphalt is relatively limited.
At the same time, the demand for stockpiling by traders has dropped significantly, and market transactions have been slightly light.
At the beginning of this year, domestic investment in highway construction increased sharply year-on-year, mainly due to the low base.
Affected by the epidemic, domestic investment in road construction fell sharply at the beginning of last year, and only started to grow after the second quarter.
Increased pressure on refinery inventories
In the first quarter, the overall demand for asphalt was weak.
In the context of the recovery of the start-up load of the refinery, refinery inventory has accumulated, but the overall inventory level is still within the controllable range.
Due to sluggish terminal demand, social stocks of asphalt are also accumulating recently.
Transfer from: Chemical Network
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