Outer metals rose across the board, and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated higher

On the macro front, the US dollar index strengthened slightly in the previous session, maintaining above 96, and the market risk aversion did not further strengthen, but monetary policy expectations still have strong support
for the US dollar index.

In terms of supply, Shanxi has recently been short of supply due to natural disasters, production and power restrictions, the arrival of the heating season and other factors, Shanxi Henan has recently resumed normal production, due to the previous shortage of bauxite supply, inventory is relatively tight, manufacturers are actively replenishing inventory, although the resumption of production, alleviating inventory pressure, but resources are still in a state of shortage, it is predicted that the price of bauxite will not be lowered in the near future, and there will be a shock trend in the later stage; Romanian ALRO Aluminium announced that primary aluminum production will be reduced in 2022, from five electrolysis workshops to two electrolysis plants, while the company plans to maintain or even increase the output of processed products, and the reduction in primary aluminum production in 2022 will be partially made up by recycled metals or purchasing primary aluminum from third parties
.

In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to go to storage near the end of the year, partly because of concerns about the impact of the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates, large and medium-sized aluminum factories around the country generally appear "rush to export", but from the perspective of aluminum plate and foil, aluminum rod, aluminum rod and other demand, near the end of the year, most aluminum companies and dealers to this year's orders to close the work, return funds, expected consumption improvement space is not much
.

In terms of inventory, the export volume of electrolytic aluminum in China's main regions (12.
26-1.
2) was about 158,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, compared with 130,000 tons in the same period last year, in terms of regions, Wuxi area decreased significantly, Hangzhou, Foshan area decreased slightly, Shanghai, Gongyi, Chongqing inventory increased slightly, Tianjin, Shenyang, Changzhou area inventory remained stable
.
In summary, in the absence of new production restrictions on the domestic supply side, Shanghai's domestic fundamentals tend to weaken in the short term, which may limit the space
for price increases.