OPEC production cuts exceed expectations Crude oil hit its biggest weekly gain since March or will return to the $100-120/barrel range

Crude oil prices rose at the highest
level of any asset class during the National Day.
International crude oil futures settlement prices rose sharply last week, the biggest weekly gain
since March.
The WTI November crude oil futures main contract rose 16.
54%
last week.
On October 5, OPEC+ made a decision to announce its agreement to cut production by 2 million bpd
.
Since October, OPEC+ has frequently raised market expectations for its production cuts, driving the two oils in the outer plate to continue to rise sharply, and finally fulfilling its production reduction plan
.
South China Futures believes that from the supply point of view, OPEC+ cut production by 2 million barrels / day in the monthly meeting on October 5, which is the largest production cut since 2020 and the main driving force
for this round of oil price rise.
In addition to the above reasons, Zheshang Futures added that last week's EIA data performed better, the US crude oil and gasoline and diesel inventories declined, and the situation between Russia and Ukraine intensified, further promoting the upward trend
of oil prices.

Domestic refined oil prices are highly correlated
with international crude oil prices.
Recently, OPEC production cuts exceeded expectations, and US crude oil and refined oil inventories fell, which continued to push up crude oil prices
.
Specifically, in addition to OPEC's decision to start in November 2022, the agreed production will be reduced by 2 million bpd
from the agreed production in August.
The actual reported decrease in commercial crude oil inventories for the week ended September 30 was 1.
356 million barrels, with an expected increase of 205.
2 barrels and a decrease of 215,000 barrels in the previous period, according to the data released by the US EIA; Gasoline inventories actually reported a decrease of 4.
728 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 1.
334 million barrels and a prior-value decrease of 2.
422 million barrels; Refined oil inventories actually reported a decrease of 3.
443 million barrels, an expected decrease of 136.
7 barrels and a decrease of 2.
891 million barrels in
the previous value.

In addition to the upcoming price adjustment, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted a total of 18 times, including 11 increases and 7 downward adjustments
.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission said that based on the analysis and forecasting of a number of institutions, the average price of international crude oil in this round has decreased
slightly compared with the previous round.
In addition, exchange rate movements are taken into account
.

It is reported that in the world's proven crude oil reserves, all "OPEC" member countries account for 80.
4%, plus 11 "OPEC" partner countries, "OPEC+" member countries have a cumulative total of about 90% of the world's crude oil reserves, which greatly affects the oil supply, and then affects oil prices
.
In addition, according to Huatai Securities data, China's oil production in 2021 is 199 million tons, the scale of future production is limited, and the dependence on oil abroad is 72%.

At present, OPEC's production cuts have had a strong boosting effect
on international crude oil prices.
Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, said that if other variables are not considered, the current oil price center may break through $100 / barrel
.
The upside height depends on the duration of OPEC's production cuts, and if it is implemented for only two months, the impact will be relatively limited; If it continues into the whole of next year, it will continue to push up oil prices
.

From the perspective of supply and demand, diesel, diesel supply resources in some parts of the country are still tightening, superimposed demand peak season support, and outdoor operations such as engineering infrastructure are in an active period of rush construction, diesel demand is good, gasoline, frequent epidemics in some parts of the country, holiday travel is limited, and the terminal demand consumption of gasoline is less than expected; Affected by high-speed restrictions, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic refined oil market during the National Day period was flat, but before the festival led to a good demand for gasoline, supporting the rise of domestic gasoline before the holiday, diesel demand support is good, after the holiday crude oil closed for many days to boost the price of gasoline, while diesel resources are tight, limited sales in some areas, diesel prices basically hold steady wholesale
limits.

Zhongtai Securities Xie Nan said that compared with the third quarter, in the absence of a large number of strategic reserve support, the supply and demand pattern in the fourth quarter or will show a tight balance trend, the supply and demand balance table has re-entered the destocking stage, crude oil prices are expected to usher in a rise, or will return to the 100-120 US dollars / barrel range
.
It is recommended to pay attention to the "oil", "service" and "replacement" related enterprises: PetroChina, CNOOC, Zhongman Petroleum, CNOOC Service, Diwell, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical and other enterprises
.

Related Concept Stocks:

PetroChina: The company is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China's oil and gas industry, one of the largest companies in China in terms of sales revenue, and one of the largest oil companies in the
world.
The main business includes: exploration, development, transmission, production and sales of crude oil and natural gas; Refining of crude oil and petroleum products, production and sales of basic and derivative chemical products and other chemical products; Sales and trading of refined and non-oil products, etc
.

CNOOC: The Company is the largest offshore crude oil and natural gas producer in China and one of the world's largest independent oil and gas exploration and production groups, principally engaged in the exploration, development, production and sale of crude oil and natural gas
.
The company's main business is the exploration, development, production and sales of crude oil and natural gas, is the largest offshore crude oil and natural gas producer in China, and one of
the world's largest independent oil and gas exploration and production groups.

CNOOC Services: The company is Asia's largest integrated oilfield service provider
.
The company's business is divided into four categories: geophysical acquisition and engineering survey services, drilling services, oilfield technical services and ship services
.

Zhongman Petroleum: The company's three business segments cover exploration and development, oil service engineering, and petroleum equipment manufacturing, all of which are in the upstream of
the petroleum industry chain.
The company's main business is petroleum engineering, pipeline engineering, offshore petroleum engineering, environmental protection engineering, oil and gas exploitation, petroleum and so on
.