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On Monday, April 11, Eastern time, Mohammad Barkino, OPEC secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told the European Union that the current global oil market crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not under
the control of the organization.
Russian oil supply losses could exceed 7 million b/d due to current and future U.
S.
-West sanctions or consumer boycotts; This would be far beyond what OPEC has the ability to replace
.
Previously, according to Bloomberg's reference to documents related to OPEC's regular dialogue with the EU, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson claimed that OPEC has a responsibility to balance the market and that OPEC can use existing spare capacity to help deal with the crisis
.
But Barkindo responded that the market is currently affected by political factors, not supply and demand, and OPEC has little to do
.
The combination of these crises has led to large market fluctuations.
.
.
However, I must point out that these are non-fundamental factors that are completely outside the control of OPEC
.
As pointed out in an earlier article on Wall Street, the fluctuation of crude oil and natural gas prices mainly reflects changes in supply and demand, including market uncertainty and other factors beyond the control of the company, such as macroeconomic conditions, OPEC and the oil policies of major oil-exporting countries, geopolitical and economic conditions and actions related to major oil-producing countries, prices and availability of other energy sources, natural disasters, weather conditions and major global public health emergencies
.
From a supply point of view, oil and gas supplies were already tight long before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified
.
In the short term, on the one hand, OPEC remains untouched in the face of the crisis that has swept the oil market, insisting on a plan to gradually increase production, and its member countries are struggling to increase oil supply; Under sanctions from Europe and the United States, Russia's oil production fell the most in nearly two years in early April, exacerbating supply tensions
.
On the other hand, supply disruptions become another problem
.
However, Wall Street has seen the VIP member article "Crude oil three giants want to change, OPEC can still be a big one?" In late March, when oil prices rose with the US dollar, it was also pointed out that in 2022, due to the reduction of Russian crude oil exports, crude oil as a whole was in a tight balance
.
However, with high oil prices stimulating the expansion of investment in oil-producing countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia's religious conflict, crude oil is still facing excess pressure
in the long run.