OPEC misses June production increase target Oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile

Message surface

Root analysts warned that global oil prices could reach $
380 a barrel if U.
S.
and European sanctions prompt Russia to impose retaliatory production cuts.
Currently, the G7 is finalizing a complex mechanism to limit the price of
Russian oil.
But JPMorgan believes Russia has the ability to cut crude oil production by 5 million barrels
per day without unduly damaging the economy.
For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous
.
A 3 million barrel-per-day reduction in Russian supply would raise the benchmark London crude price to $190, while a worst-case scenario of a 5 million barrel cut could mean a spike to $380
.

In May, Russian oil exports to China soared to record levels, surpassing Saudi Arabia as the largest supplier to China, the world's
largest importer of crude oil.
China's imports of oil from Russia reached 8.
42 million tons that month, up 28 percent from the previous month and 55 percent
from the same period last year, according to data released by China's General Administration of Customs.

Kazakhstan's June oil production fell 22% from May to 1.
193 million b/d, as the Kashagan field was shut down due to maintenance and Kazakhstan's oil production fell below the OPEC+ June quota of 1.
655 million b/d
.

Since the end of major protests on June 3, the country's output has returned to 90 percent of normal levels to 461,000 b/d, compared with 262,000 b/d
on June 30, according to the energy ministry.
For its 18 days of protests, oil workers and the military managed to avoid a collapse
of the oil and gas industry.

Institutional perspective

Guoxin Futures:

Recession fears sent oil prices lower intraday, but supply tightness fears continued to support sentiment
.
International oil prices rose late
in late trading amid supply concerns over reduced OPEC production and unrest in Libya over fears of a global demand recession.
A Reuters investigation found that OPEC failed to meet its June production increase target
.
OPEC member Libya said crude oil production fell by 865,000 barrels
per day in June.
On the technical side, oil prices SC2208 may remain volatile
in the short term.
Operation suggestion: oscillation idea operation
.

GF Futures:

In the second half of the year, both ends of crude oil supply and demand are facing greater uncertainty, in the case of relatively balanced supply and demand and relatively limited oversupply, sudden factors at both ends of supply and demand may make the rapid switch of supply and demand structure, but low inventories still determine the operating center
of relatively high oil prices.
Under the assumption that OPEC will maintain a cautious production increase policy in the next step, the US crude oil production increase is slow, and Iranian crude oil has not made progress, the short-term tight supply coupled with refined oil demand still shows some resilience, and oil prices are expected to maintain a high volatility trend in the short term
.