OPEC+ is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter, and U.S. oil rebounded more than $2 at its low

On Thursday (October 28), U.
S.
oil rose slightly to close at $83.
06 / barrel; Brent oil rose slightly to close at $83.
9 per barrel; Both crude oil indicators fell to two-week lows earlier, and oil prices recovered sharply as U.
S.
stocks rose near record highs, recovering the day's losses; The Joint OPEC+ Technical Committee expects world oil inventories to decline by an average of 1.
1 million barrels
per day in the fourth quarter.

A week before OPEC meets to discuss output policy, OPEC+ is expected to tighten
supply this quarter.
World oil inventories will fall by an average of 1.
1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, compared with 670,000 barrels
per day predicted when the expert group met last month, according to sources assessing data from the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee JTC.
At the same time, fuel demand is higher, and supply outside OPEC+ will be slightly lower than previously expected
.
By the end of the year, inventories in advanced economies will be 158 million barrels below average, compared with 106 million barrels
previously expected.

The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee's outlook for the fourth quarter is tighter
than initially expected.
The committee's projections assume that OPEC+ countries will raise output enough to meet their official quotas
.
But given that some countries, notably Angola and Nigeria, are struggling with investment restrictions and operations, raising production to official quotas is unlikely
.
At the same time, in response to fragile market conditions, JTC has introduced a "fundamental-adjusted" forecast, which takes into account the possibility of
weaker demand and stronger-than-fundamentals supply from competitors.
This would reduce world oil inventories by 300,000 barrels
per day in the fourth quarter.
The inventory surplus will be even larger in 2022, at 1.
6 million barrels per day, compared to 1.
3 million barrels
per day in the base case.

Goldman Sachs said that if OPEC+ continues on the path of adding 400,000 b/d of capacity per month, the price needs to rise to $110/b to be enough to dampen demand
.

A high-level U.
S.
energy diplomat called on global oil and gas producers to maximize production to ease supply constraints
.
Heading into the summer and beyond, we found out that there was an energy crisis
.
Producers should ensure that the oil and gas markets are balanced
.
When going through a period of supply disruption, it is not enough to supply the market at the level of the contract
.
In order to meet global demand, it is the responsibility
of suppliers to "maximize oil and gas production at certain stages of supply tightness.
"

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, said on state television that he discussed with EU envoy Enrique Mora the framework
for lifting sanctions and restarting nuclear talks.
Iran will hold bilateral talks with the P4+1, and Bagheri Kani will meet with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov during his visit to Moscow to discuss bilateral relations
.

Ha Nguyen, executive director of global oil at IHS Markit, said U.
S.
crude oil production is expected to fall below
2 million b/d by 2050 if global restrictions on fossil fuels are tightened in response to their catastrophic climate impact.
In the "green rule" scenario, if cheap wells in the U.
S.
shale oil region can no longer produce crude oil, it is unlikely to expand to high-priced projects with break-even points above the current $30-70/b range
.
Other large producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia are not expected to see the decline as much
.