Oil products meet the eighth rise in the year International oil prices may still be stronger

At 24:00 on May 16, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened
.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 285 yuan and 270 yuan
per ton respectively.
This is also the eighth increase in domestic refined oil prices this year
.

Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have shown a shock and a surge
.
According to the monitoring of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, the international oil price shock in the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (April 28 to May 13) has risen, and the average oil prices of London Brent and New York WTI have risen by 2.
08%
compared with the previous round of price adjustment cycle.
Analysts believe that under the background of strong international oil prices, the probability of the retail price limit of refined oil products in the next cycle will continue to rise
.

The price of refined oil products has risen again

On May 17, the June crude oil spot contract of the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange WTI rose again, and the main crude oil contract 2206 in the domestic futures market also rose 3.
58%.

The strong international crude oil prices have prompted domestic refined oil prices to rise
this round.

Oil prices plunged more than 6 percent last Monday, and WTI crude oil briefly fell below $
100.
However, after Wednesday, oil prices rebounded sharply for four consecutive trading days, all recovering the previously lost ground
.
Oil prices rose
again on Monday, following the re-establishment of the $110 mark on Friday.
For the recent international oil price performance, business analyst Xue Jinlei said that on May 16, the settlement price of the main contract of the US WTI crude oil futures was reported at $114.
2 / barrel, an increase of $3.
71 or 3.
4%; The main contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $114.
24/barrel, an increase of $2.
69 or 2.
4%.

U.
S.
gasoline prices soared to record highs, and North American demand remained strong; Coupled with the improvement of the epidemic in Asia, the demand expectation and worry sentiment have eased
.
More importantly, the market is cautious about the EU's embargo against Russian oil, and the expectation of tightening supply continues to ferment, and oil prices continue to rise
.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Yanting also analyzed that at the beginning of this pricing cycle, the EU shelved the plan to embargo Russian crude oil, market supply concerns eased, in addition, China's epidemic prevention measures led to energy demand concerns, and EIA lowered crude oil demand expectations, which also put oil prices under pressure, and international crude oil prices fell sharply
。 Later, the European Union plans to approve a new package of sanctions against Russia, and OPEC+ composed of allies such as OPEC and Russia ignores the call of Western countries to accelerate production increases, maintains a policy of slightly increasing monthly oil production, which exacerbates investors' anxiety about insufficient supply growth, and international crude oil prices begin to rebound
broadly.

The upward price of refined oil products is closely
related to social production and life.

According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the domestic gasoline and diesel retail limit price per ton was raised by 285 and 270 yuan respectively, and the discount price of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline and 0# diesel was raised by 0.
22, 0.
24 and 0.
23 yuan
respectively.
This increase is the 8th rise in the year, after the rise and fall, gasoline and diesel rose by 1930 yuan / ton, 1855 yuan / ton, respectively, the price of 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, 0# diesel was 1.
52 yuan, 1.
6 yuan, 1.
58 yuan
.
After the implementation of this upward adjustment policy, the cost of consumer travel increased
slightly.
Taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will cost about
11 yuan more than before.
In terms of fuel consumption analysis, taking a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers as an example, the cost of consumer oil will increase by about
16 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens (24:00 on May 30, 2022).
In the logistics industry, taking the Steyr heavy-duty truck running 10,000 kilometers per month and the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers at 38L as an example, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about
408 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens.

International oil prices may still strengthen

Under the factors such as geopolitical risks, the overall high level of international crude oil prices this year is running, and in the short term, this high oil price state may continue
.

Xue Jinlei believes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have been negative
about increasing production.
The latest OPEC+ ministerial meeting landed on May 6, maintaining the June linear production increase plan and making no additional commitments to
increase production.
In the medium term, OPEC+ is expected to release limited additional capacity through increased production, which will continue to help oil prices remain at a high level
.
In addition, the future uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply remains the biggest risk point
in the market.
The risk appetite of the market will be affected
by the expectation of tightening supply.
Short-term oil prices will still run
at a high level under the influence of the EU's oil ban on Russia.
In the medium and long term, oil prices will seek a rebalancing of supply and demand in the context of Fed interest rate hikes
.

Baichuan Yingfu believes that OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the EIA have all made a slight reduction in future oil demand, but they have also lowered production expectations, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have surplus capacity to increase production, but they are more looking forward to maintaining high oil prices
.
Other oil-producing countries led by Russia are affected by sanctions, weak production capacity and other factors, and it is difficult to significantly increase production in a short period of time, and it is expected that international crude oil prices will remain high in the short term
.

Zhuo Chuang refined oil analyst Xu Na believes that in the next cycle, the market is concerned about the differences between the United States and the Middle East on the anti-OPEC bill, and the oil market price is expected to continue the high volatility
.
The United States hopes to use the anti-OPEC plan to force Saudi Arabia to release a large amount of spare capacity in the short term, and resolve the contradiction of high oil prices after increasing production; However, Saudi Arabia hopes to increase production moderately according to the plan, and can adjust
oil prices at any time in the process of releasing spare capacity.
Until things become clear, international oil market prices will continue to be volatile
at high levels.
Based on this, at the beginning of the next cycle, the rate of change of crude oil is at a positive high, and the probability of the retail limit price of refined oil products continuing to rise is large
.

Wang Yanting also believes that the probability of a new round of sharp increase in the rate of change is still large, and the news still has support
in the face of the later market trend.
In May, the main business still has new refinery maintenance, and other refineries are relatively limited in starting to refine, the main refinery is still at a low level, and although local refineries have resumed work one after another, the impact on the overall operating load of the refinery is limited, and the supply of domestic refined oil resources is insufficient
.
At the same time, the price of crude oil is still at a high level, the cost of refinery is high, and the cost is still supported
by the price of refined oil.
However, the current epidemic situation still restricts the domestic gasoline and diesel demand, and high oil prices also have resistance to the increase in the terminal consumption of refined oil, and the sales situation of gas stations is not good
.
Middle- and downstream players are still relatively cautious in entering the market to replenish goods, and it is difficult for market transactions to improve significantly
.
Overall, there is still room for upward movement in the domestic gasoline and diesel market in the near future, but it is subject to weak demand and limited
price increases.