Oil prices soared to $120, and international investment banks once again raised the banner of optimism

The international crude oil price soared to $120 again, approaching the high point of geopolitical conflicts, which attracted market attention
.

As of Friday's close, WTI crude oil futures closed at $120.
47 a barrel, up nearly 30% from a low of about $93 in early April, and Brent crude touched $124 a barrel
intraday.
Despite the surge in crude prices, Goldman Sachs said energy prices needed to climb further to cut consumer demand and raise its oil price target further to $140 a barrel
.

With the rise in international oil prices, the stock market also shows a phenomenon
of futures stock linkage.
In the past three trading days, the A-share oil-related industry sector rose by 5.
48%, CNOOC hit a new high since listing, and Sinopec and PetroChina rose
sharply.

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price target

In the past two months, international oil prices have walked out of a round of strong rally from a minimum of about $93, with an increase of 30%.

On June 8, the price of WTI crude oil hit a maximum of $123.
18 per liter, approaching the high of $130 set in early March; As of the close on June 10, WTI crude oil futures hit an intraday high of $122.
75, closing at $120.
47 / barrel; Brent crude hit as high as $124 per barrel
.
It is worth noting that affected by the rise in crude oil prices, No.
92 gasoline in some parts of the country has exceeded 9 yuan / liter
for the first time.

Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price target again, and expects the price of Brent crude oil to be $140 / barrel in the third quarter and $130 / barrel in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous expectation of $125 / barrel; It is expected to be $130/b in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the previous expectation of $115/b
.

Damien Courvalin, head of energy research and senior commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said that energy prices need to climb further before Americans can start cutting consumption, and "prices are not high enough to reduce demand growth.
"

Morgan Stanley expects the base price of Brent crude oil to be $130/b in the third quarter, compared with the bullish expectation price of $150/barrel
.
Jeremy Will, CEO of crude oil trading giant Trafigura, said oil prices could reach $150 a barrel
in the coming months.

The United Arab Emirates, a major member of the OPEC+ (which includes 10 other non-OPEC members), also said oil prices were "far from peaking" as demand in the Chinese market was recovering
.

Supply remains tight

The latest data from the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration also showed that despite record fuel prices, U.
S.
gasoline demand rose to its highest level this year, but about 1% lower than the same period last year and nearly 6%
lower than the same period in 2019.

Although the demand for crude oil market is strong, the most essential factor that leads to the continuation of high oil prices is tight supply
.
At the 29th ministerial meeting, OPEC producers decided to raise the monthly production average in July~August to 648,000 barrels per day, higher than the previous monthly production increase plan of 432,000 barrels per day
.
Although the production increase plan has exceeded expectations, there is not much spare capacity left in OPEC member countries, and the scale of production increase has not reached the target in recent months, and the market is still worried about tight supply
.

According to the data, OPEC+ production in May 2022 increased by 120,000 b/d month-on-month, 2.
616 million b/d below the target, and the compliance rate of production cuts was as high as 182.
5%.

Thirteen OPEC members produced 28.
62 million b/d in May, down 180,000 b/d
month-on-month.

Goldman Sachs believes that the supply and demand situation in the global market will worsen, and the supply deficit may widen further than before, and the current global inventory is 75 million barrels
less than before.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the June 22 deficit is close to 600,000 b/d (at current spot prices), a new deficit that will keep inventories and spare capacity in global oil markets at record low levels for months ahead
.

CSC Futures also believes that the pattern of crude oil supply and demand is still strong, and last Thursday's refined oil products rose again more than crude oil, and the cracking price difference between European and American refined oil products rose
.
Terminal consumption data is still in the upward period, maintaining the idea of volatility
.

However, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.
9 percent, warning of the risk of
"stagflation.
" An International Monetary Fund spokesman said it was expected to further cut its global growth forecast
for 2022 next month.
This will be the third time the IMF has lowered its forecast this year, and it is clear that the negative factors of high oil prices are accumulating
.

Shares in the oil sector rose sharply

In the context of the continuous rise in oil prices, oil-related stocks in the A-share market rose sharply last week, showing a linkage effect
of futures stocks.

Data show that in the past three trading days, the oil industry rose 5.
48%, ranking third
among all A sectors, second only to the coal industry and fertilizer industry.
In terms of individual stocks, CNOOC's A-shares hit a new high, and the total market value of A+H reached a new high
.
PetroChina hit a three-month high, Sinopec hit a new four-month high, and Guangju Energy set two consecutive limit increases
.

Many market participants believe that oil stocks are the best investment opportunity at present, and the most perceptive of them should be the stock god Warren Buffett
.

Buffett's Berkshire began buying Chevron as early as the third quarter of last year, and in the first quarter of this year, it increased its position sharply, with a market value of $26 billion, making it its fourth largest heavy stock
.

In addition, Buffett also bought Occidental Petroleum aggressively in the first quarter, with a market value of about $13.
2 billion, ranking sixth heavy
.
At present, Berkshire's position in the oil industry has exceeded $40 billion, accounting for 11%
of the total market value of its holdings.

Cinda Securities believes that crude oil demand is still growing, the world will continue to face the problem of crude oil shortage for many years, international oil prices will usher in an upward turning point in 2022, oil prices will remain high for a long time in the medium and long term, and energy is expected to be in an upward cycle
in the next 3 to 5 years.

However, in its outlook for the second half of the year, CSC expects crude oil demand to decline rapidly as the global economy
falls.
However, the uncertainty of war and geopolitical factors is greater, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate and fall
in the absence of spillover geopolitical conflicts.