Oil prices or will enter the "ten yuan" era

Under the continuous high operation of international oil prices, domestic oil prices may usher in the "ten yuan" era
.

At 24:00 on June 14, domestic refined oil products will usher in the 11th round of adjustment
this year.
As of June 7, Zhejiang Province's 10 pricing working days have been counted more than half, the current crude oil change rate on the 5th day is 6.
41%, and the oil price forecast is raised by about 305 yuan / ton
.
Equivalent to liters, the current forecast of the next round of oil price increases is 0.
23 yuan / liter ~ 0.
26 yuan / liter, according to the household car fuel tank 50 liters calculation, filling a tank of oil will cost about
12 yuan more.

In fact, before the adjustment on June 14, the country has experienced 10 times of refined oil price adjustment this year, showing a trend of "9 up and 1 down", and the domestic gasoline and diesel have risen by 2330 yuan and 2245 yuan per ton respectively, which also means that a 50-liter tank of private cars currently spends 93 yuan
more than at the beginning of the year.

Taking the Beijing area as a reference, before the adjustment on June 14, the market price of No.
92 gasoline was 9.
01 yuan / liter, and No.
95 gasoline was 9.
59 yuan / liter
.
The highest oil price in the country is still Hainan Province, and before the Zhejiang provincial round adjustment, the market prices of No.
92 and No.
95 gasoline were 10.
12 yuan / liter and 10.
76 yuan / liter
, respectively.

Industry analysts believe that if the international oil price still cannot show a sharp downward trend in the remaining domestic pricing cycle of Zhejiang Province, the domestic oil price of Zhejiang Provincial Round will continue to rise with a high probability and will become the 10th increase
in the year.

However, expectations for international oil prices are still rising
.
Jeremy Weir, CEO of international oil and crude oil trading giant Trafigura, said on the 7th that in the next few months, oil prices may reach $150 per barrel, and by the end of the year, the market may begin to see demand destruction
.
Rising commodity prices could drag down economic activity and ultimately cool
demand, Vell said.

Goldman Sachs also released a report a few days ago, once again raising its crude oil price expectations, saying that the structural shortage has not yet been resolved, and raising its summer peak oil price target from $125 to $140, while also raising the oil price target for the rest of 2022 and 2022 by $
10.

Citibank released a report saying it raised its second-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast by $14 to $113/bbl, up from $
99 a barrel previously forecasted.
Citibank believes that after a period of high oil prices, prices will show a downward trend
as the supply side relaxes.

Seeing the advent of the "ten yuan" era of oil prices, many netizens have also said that the oil truck has been unable to drive and is ready to change the
tram.

In fact, the frequent rise in oil prices has made more and more voices counting down to the exit of fuel vehicles from the market
.
Not long ago, Yu Chengdong, Huawei's intelligent car solution BUCEO, publicly said: "The era of pure fuel vehicles will end quickly, and now buying fuel vehicles is like buying functional machines
in the era of smart phones.
" ”

Some people believe that although China has not yet released a timetable for the delisting of fuel vehicles, the trend of promoting the development of new energy vehicles has become more obvious
.
In the promotion of carbon emissions, the strides in improving the national standard for exhaust gas, and restrictions on the transfer and inspection of old fuel vehicles, many policies have shown their intention to
encourage the consumption of new energy vehicles.

Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Energy Administration, issued the "Notice on Carrying Out the 2022 New Energy Vehicle Countryside Activities" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which made it clear that from May to December, the four departments will jointly organize a new round of new energy vehicle activities to go to the countryside, and select third- and fourth-tier cities, counties and districts to hold a number of special events, touring exhibitions and enterprise activities in Shanxi, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hainan, Sichuan, Gansu and other places
。

It is reported that a total of 26 car companies participating in the activities of new energy vehicles going to the countryside in 2022 have 70 models, an increase of 8 compared with 2021 car companies, and the number of models has increased by nearly 20
.
It is not difficult to see from the number of car companies and models participating in the activities that the participation of new energy vehicles going to the countryside in 2022 is stronger and the models are more abundant
.

Prior to this, the Ministry of Finance officially issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak Carbon Neutrality" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") that it is necessary to vigorously support the development of new energy vehicles, improve the support policy for charging and replacing infrastructure, and steadily promote the demonstration and application of
fuel cell vehicles.

However, for whether the recent rise in oil prices will become a key node for new energy vehicles to completely replace traditional fuel vehicles, Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, believes that although oil prices have continued to rise recently, the raw materials for new energy vehicle power batteries are also rising
.
Due to the continuous warming of the global climate in recent years, low-carbon travel and green travel have become the main theme of people's travel, and it is imperative
to accelerate the realization of the "double carbon" goal.

Although the world is accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles, the rise in oil prices is not the root cause of consumers' purchase of traditional fuel vehicles in Zhejiang Province for
the time being.
For example, the current commercial vehicle market still relies on traditional fuel vehicles, and its complete replacement by new energy models will involve energy diversification and other issues
.
Therefore, the factor of rising oil prices will not make traditional fuel vehicles be replaced from the root of Zhejiang Province, but traditional fuel vehicles may face the process of
being gradually replaced.