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Goldman Sachs predicts that oil demand will hit a new high not only in 2022, but also in 2023
.
On Friday (Dec.
17), Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at the investment bank, said oil prices could reach $
100 a barrel.
He said oil demand reached new highs before the emergence of the Omicron virus, and demand for air travel will continue to recover
.
Courvalin told reporters at Friday's energy outlook launch: "Our demand was already at a new high before the Omicron outbreak, and the demand for air travel is increasing, and the global economy is on the
rise.
" He also said that "average demand will reach new all-time highs in 2022 and 2023
.
" ”
International benchmark Brent crude and U.
S.
crude prices have both surged above $80 in recent months as post-pandemic demand outstrips
supply.
Soaring gas prices have also triggered crises around the world, especially in Europe
.
However, the Omicron virus has dampened the rise in oil prices, which have returned above $70 in recent weeks
.
Meanwhile, Courvalin expects restrictions on air travel to ease
.
The air travel industry has been slow to recover, he said, in part because of Asia
.
"Until recently, countries like Australia, New Zealand, Singapore have been very aggressive
in restricting international travel.
This is alleviating," he said
.
"We have to wait for this wave to pass, which means that the international tourism industry should recover
further next year," he said.
He predicted that oil prices will reach $85 a barrel in 2022, with an upside range of $5 to $10
.
Oil price reaches $110?
Courvalin said he did not rule out the possibility that oil prices would reach $100 and that there are "two scenarios" that could lead to this outcome
.
The first is that costs rise
as oil companies ramp up production.
"There is inflation in other areas of the economy, and eventually there is inflation in the oil industry," he said
.
Another possibility is that as the global economy recovers from the pandemic, oil supplies will not be able to meet demand
.
Courvalin said oil prices could be as high as $
110 due to a slowdown in the market due to demand destruction.
It's "quite possible
," he added.
”
There have been concerns that high oil prices will cause "demand destruction" in the market
.
"Demand destruction" means that demand decreases
in a short period of time due to persistently high oil prices.
OPEC+, made up of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, said it needed to reassess if the demand outlook changed, and they could bring forward the meeting expected for Jan.
4
, Reuters reported.
According to Reuters, OPEC+ plans to increase supply by 400,000 barrels per day in January
.