Oil prices are going crazy! Goldman Sachs: Still going up! A new round of price adjustment is coming, a tank of oil to 600 yuan?

As of the close of trading on June 10, WTI crude oil futures closed at $120.
47/bbl, up nearly 30% from its lowest $93 in early April, with Brent crude hitting $124/b
at one point.

Notably, despite the surge in crude oil prices, Goldman Sachs said energy prices need to climb further to cut consumer demand, raising the oil price target further to $140 a barrel
.

With the soaring oil prices, many institutions predict that in the new round of price adjustment next Tuesday, No.
95 gasoline or will break through the 10 yuan mark, a record high
.
In addition, the stock market also shows the phenomenon
of linkage of futures stocks.
In the past three trading days, the oil-related industry has soared by 5.
48%, CNOOC's A-share listing has reached a new high, and Sinopec and PetroChina have risen
sharply.

Oil prices rose again to $120, and Goldman Sachs raised the big flag again

As the king of commodities, the volatility of crude oil prices has a huge
impact.

In the past two months, international oil prices have come out of a strong rally from a minimum of about $93, rising by 30%.

On June 8, WTI crude oil prices touched a maximum of $123.
18/l, approaching the high of $130 set in early March; As of the close of trading on June 10, WTI crude oil futures touched an intraday high of $122.
75 and closed at $120.
47 / barrel; Brent crude oil touched a maximum of $124 / barrel
.

It is worth noting that affected by the rise in crude oil prices, No.
92 gasoline in some parts of China has exceeded 9 yuan / liter
for the first time.
A number of institutions predict that a new round of price adjustment will be opened on June 14, and No.
95 gasoline will break through the 10 yuan mark, hitting a record high
.
This means that if the ordinary fuel vehicle has a 60-liter fuel tank, adding a tank of 95 fuel will require 600 yuan, and the cost of the car will rise
sharply.

What is more serious is that Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price target
again recently.
Brent crude oil prices are expected to be $140/b in the third quarter and $130/b in the fourth quarter, after previous expectations of $125/bbl; It was $130/b in the first quarter of 2023, compared to $115/b
previously expected.
Goldman Sachs noted that demand in China is recovering and expects strong growth
this year.

Damien Courvalin, senior commodity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said on Friday (10th) that energy prices need to climb further before Americans can start cutting consumption
.
"Prices are not high enough to reduce demand growth
.
"

Morgan Stanley still expects the basic forecast price of Brent crude oil for the third quarter to be $130/bbl, while the bullish expected price is $150/bbl
.
Jeremy Well, CEO of crude oil trading giant Trafigura, said oil prices could reach $150 a barrel
in the coming months.

The United Arab Emirates, a major member of the oil-producing state organization OPEC+, also said oil prices were "far from peaking" as demand in China was recovering, potentially straining
already tight global markets.

Behind the high oil prices: strong consumption and continued tight supply

The latest data from the Energy Information Administration also shows that despite record fuel prices, U.
S.
gasoline demand rose to its highest level this year, but it was about 1 percent lower than the same period last year and nearly 6 percent
lower than the same period in 2019.

Although the demand in the crude oil market is strong, the most essential factor leading to the continuation of high oil prices is the tight
supply.

At the 29th Ministerial Meeting, OPEC producers decided to raise monthly production from July to August to 648,000 barrels per day, up from the previous monthly increase of
432,000 barrels per day.
Although the production increase plan is more than expected, there is not much spare capacity left in OPEC member countries, and the scale of production increase in recent months has not reached the standard, and the market's concern about tight supply remains unabated
.

According to the data, OPEC+ production in May 2022 increased by 120,000 b/d month-on-month, 2.
616 million b/d lower than the target, and the implementation rate of production reduction was as high as 182.
5%.

Production in the 13 OPEC countries was 28.
62 million bpd in May, down 180,000 bpd
from the previous month.

Goldman Sachs believes that the supply and demand situation in the global market will deteriorate, the supply deficit may further expand than before, and the current global inventory is 75 million barrels
lower than before.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the June 22 deficit is close to 600,000 bpd (at current spot prices), a new deficit that will keep inventories and spare capacity in the global oil market at record low levels
in the coming months.

CITIC Construction Investment Futures also pointed out that the pattern of crude oil supply and demand is still strong, and the rise in refined oil products on Thursday once again exceeded that of crude oil, and the cracking spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States was higher
.
Terminal consumption data is still in the upward period, maintaining the idea of oscillating more
.

However, the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for this year to 2.
9 percent, warning of the risk of
"stagflation.
" An IMF spokesman said it expects further downward revisions to its 2022 global growth forecast next month, which will be the third time the IMF has lowered its forecast
this year.
Obviously, the negative factors of high oil prices are also accumulating
.

The oil sector rose sharply, and CNOOC's A-share listing hit a new high

In the context of the continuous rise in oil prices, oil-related stocks in the A-share market rose sharply last week, showing a linkage effect of
futures stocks.

The data shows that in the past 3 trading days, the oil industry has soared by 5.
48%, ranking third
in all sectors of the A, second only to the coal industry and the fertilizer industry.
In terms of individual stocks, CNOOC's A-shares hit a new high for listing, and the total market value of A+H approached the 1 trillion mark
.
PetroChina hit a new high in 3 months, Sinopec hit a new high in only 4 months, and Guangju Energy has been up and down for 2 consecutive times
.

Many people think that oil stocks are the best investment opportunities at present, and the most sensitive of them should be Buffett
, the god of stocks.

Berkshire began buying Chevron as early as the third quarter of last year, and in the first quarter of this year, it increased its position significantly, with a market value of $26 billion, making it the fourth largest heavy stock; In addition, Buffett also bought Western Petroleum in a big way in the first quarter, holding a market value of about $13.
2 billion, ranking sixth in the largest stock
.
At present, Berkshire's holdings in the oil industry have exceeded $40 billion, accounting for 11%
of the total market capitalization.

Cinda Securities believes that the demand for crude oil is still growing, the world will continue to face the problem of crude oil shortage for many years, 2022 international oil prices ushered in an upward inflection point, medium and long-term oil prices will remain high for a long time, the next 3-5 years energy resources are expected to be in a booming cycle, continue to be firmly optimistic about this round of energy inflation, continue to be firmly optimistic about the historical allocation opportunities
of crude oil and other energy resources in the production capacity cycle.

However, CITIC Construction Investment Securities expects crude oil prices to fall back
in the second half of the year.
It is expected that crude oil demand will decline rapidly with the global economic decline, but the uncertainty of war and geopolitical factors is greater, and oil prices are expected to fall back
in the case of no spillover in the Russian-Ukrainian war.