Off-season inventory pressure is greater, PVC futures market continues to adjust

In terms of coal, the supply of high-calorie coal was tight, coinciding with the peak summer, and the coal market strengthened
slightly.
The thermal coal 2209 contract quotation is above
830 yuan / ton.
Meanwhile, COMEX crude hovered at a high level ($108/barrel) as Europe considered a complete ban on Russian crude imports
.
High energy has cost support
for PVC futures.

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotations in East China continued to fall slightly this week to 8650 yuan / ton; The basis is +149 yuan/ton
.
Warehouse orders, the number of futures registered warehouse receipts increased slightly to 5,504 lots (27,500 tons).

In terms of inventory, as of May 13, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 291,000 tons, -3.
84% week-on-week; +40.
3%
year-on-year.
Inventory reduction is still not large, and as usual, "destocking" will accelerate
in May.

In terms of starts, PVC operating loads fell
slightly this week.
According to Zhuochuang data, as of May 19, the overall operating load of PVC was 81.
29%, -1.
14% month-on-month; Among them, the calcium carbide method was 82.
05% and the ethylene method was 78.
49%.

According to statistics, the loss caused by shutdown and maintenance this week was 44,500 tons, +10,300 tons
week-on-week.
According to statistics, 17 enterprises were overhauled in April, involving a production capacity of 5.
02 million tons; In May, 21 companies announced maintenance plans
.
Usually, April and May are the maintenance period, and the operating rate will fall
somewhat.

From the perspective of supply and demand, since last Friday, the price of calcium carbide market has first increased partially and then remained stable overall, and the price has been flat
.
Recently, the starting load of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the supply has increased; The maintenance of downstream PVC enterprises increased, which was caused by the seasonal decline
.
In addition, terminal demand is weak and exports are reduced; The operating rate of PVC downstream products enterprises is only 55.
4%, and most of them maintain just need procurement
.

On the macro front, wide credit and stable growth this year are the main tone of the domestic economy, and GDP growth is set at the level
of 5.
5%.
To this end, the engine that guides the domestic economy has returned to the traditional industries
of real estate and infrastructure.
Recently, Li Keqiang presided over a symposium on stable growth and stable market entities to ensure employment to maintain the stable and healthy development of real estate; At the same time, Shanghai has taken multiple measures to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and resume work and production
.
The Politburo meeting last month pointed out: 1.
Strive to achieve the expected economic goals; 2.
Comprehensively strengthen infrastructure and give play to the role of consumption in driving the economic cycle; 3.
Support local policies according to the city, support rigidity and improvement needs; And so on
.

It is expected that calcium carbide prices will fall and PVC cost support will loosen; In May, PVC enterprises were overhauled and weakened; The performance of downstream terminal consumption is average; Under the insufficient inventory reduction, PVC futures prices are biased to the downside
.
At the macro level, policy has been making efforts, waiting for the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of actual labor volume
.
Perhaps by late June, the PVC market will produce a wave of intermediate rebound; And it lasts until August
.