October 27 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

Today's intraday thermal coal contract fell again to the limit, in addition to the relevant domestic departments also on the coal price again, short-term policy continues, the aluminum price also has a certain negative impact, Shanghai aluminum continues to probe approaching the 20,000 mark, the current macro policy undoubtedly has a strong guiding effect on aluminum prices, if the bearish news continues, then Shanghai aluminum does not rule out the possibility of continuing to fall, after the subsequent return to fundamentals, the price will have a certain opportunity to repair upward, short-term recommendations for the time being
.

Fundamentals: The double-limit policy is still advancing, and the preferential electricity price
for the electrolytic aluminum industry has recently been canceled in Sichuan.
The supply side affected by the limited power is still tightening, and the news of power restrictions and production restrictions is transmitted in Guizhou, and it is expected that the power restrictions and tank shutdowns will affect the production capacity of about 190,000 tons, and Xinjiang and other regions may face a new round of production
cuts.

Demand side: With the short-term decline in aluminum prices, the more cautious procurement demand in the early stage may be opened, more companies may choose to replenish at this time, and the futures market will usher in more buying hedging
.

Inventory: Inventory accumulation this week
.
Overseas: Watch for upcoming economic data and the impact of central bank comments on the market
.
At present, the market is still divergent, and it is still recommended to treat it with a long idea in the strategy, macro liquidity is still abundant, superimposed on dual control of energy consumption and power rationing, aluminum prices will stop falling and stabilize
.