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First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentalsJanuary and September primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output was 2.
79 million tons
China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in September was 2.
79 million mt, up 7.
1% year-on-year and down 1.
8% month-on-month, and primary aluminium production from January to September was 25 million mt, up 4.
2%
from the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The decline in electrolytic aluminum production in the past two months was mainly caused by high costs and losses of electrolytic aluminum plants
.
2.
China's alumina production in September increased by 8.
2% year-on-year
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina production reached 5.
811 million tons in September 2018, an increase of 3.
88% month-on-month and 8.
2% year-on-year, second only to July
.
The average daily output of alumina in September was 193,700 tons, 13,200 tons
higher than in August.
The cumulative output of alumina from January to September was 50.
568 million tons, an increase of 3.
4% year-on-year, the highest
increase this year.
Affected by the continuous tight supply of alumina abroad, the productivity of domestic alumina enterprises has been strengthened and the output has increased
.
3.
In September, 507,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were exported
Customs data shows that China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September 2018 were 507,000 tons, an increase of 37%
year-on-year.
However, compared with 517,000 tons last month, it fell by 10,000 tons, and the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is still at a relatively high level
.
April and September scrap imports were 100,000 tons, down 46.
9% year-on-year
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's scrap aluminum imports in September 2018 were 100,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46.
9%; From January to September, China's cumulative imports of scrap aluminum were 1.
19 million tons, down 25.
2% year-on-year, and the import amount was $1944.
6 million, down 4%
year-on-year.
The gradual decline in scrap aluminum imports is mainly affected by tariffs, followed by the ban on the import of some scrap
aluminum.
In May and September, the export volume of alumina was 165,839 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34 times
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in September 2018, China's alumina exports were 165,839 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34 times
.
The cumulative export volume from January to September increased by 12 times
compared with the same period last year.
Alumina exports increased
sharply in September.
The main reason is also affected by the shutdown of Hydro's alumina plant, the international shortage of alumina, pushing up prices, and China's alumina exports surged.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
This month's Shanghai aluminum shock after falling, the beginning of the month of the National Day holiday closed, the State Council determined to improve the tax refund system, the tax refund rate from 7 gears to 5 gears, in order to boost exports, after the holiday because of most of the surrounding metals rebound support, Shanghai aluminum rose, the main force returned to the 14500 mark, but the macro atmosphere has not yet warmed up, and the domestic heating season canceled production restrictions, so that aluminum prices rise momentum is insufficient, then European and American stock markets plummeted and raw material prices began to fall, are not good for aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum main force once fell, intraday fell to around the 14000 mark, Near the end of the month, the growth rate of China's manufacturing data slowed down, the dollar rebounded, once again put pressure on aluminum prices, fell below the 14000 important mark support, the lowest down to 13840
.
In terms of the external market, this month's Lun aluminum rushed back down, due to the suspension of overseas Hydro alumina production during the National Day, the price of aluminum rose sharply, the highest intraday climbed to $2267, an increase of 10.
86% in just 4 trading days; Subsequently, Hydro Brazilian alumina said that it may resume production, and the European and American stock markets plummeted, so that Lun Aluminum gave up all the gains during the National Day, and finally returned to the 2000 mark around the shock, but lack of favorable boost, and China's economic growth slowdown, the US dollar index continued to rise, U.
S.
stocks plummeted and other negative influences, Lun Aluminum all the way down, as of the end of the month, intraday fell below the 2000 important mark support, the lowest down to 1953.
5 US dollars, a new low
in 13 months.
In terms of the market, the market supply in October was still abundant, mainly due to the lack of confidence of holders in the future market and the increase in shipments, while on the demand side, the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" demand season fell short, which hit the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to enter the market to prepare goods, coupled with low prices, the market activity in October was far less than the same period
last year.
East China, heating season production restriction policy relaxed, some areas do not take production restriction measures, the market lacks speculation theme, October aluminum prices continued to fall, and the speed of decline accelerated, East China spot aluminum prices fell below 14,000 did not stop falling, continued to decline, as of November 1 East China spot price around 13,800, hit a new low
in nearly 6 months.
South China, the market lacks favorability, aluminum prices rise weakly, October South China aluminum ingot shock lower, the center of gravity down, as of the end of the month aluminum ingot ticket price between 14270-14370 yuan / ton, compared with the end of September down 300 yuan, market transactions, the market is sluggish and there is no sign of stopping, traders maintain fast forward and fast out operations, dare not rush to stock up, downstream bargain demand buy-based
.
In terms of aluminum rods, aluminum rod processing fees remained at a low level in October, the profits of aluminum rod factories narrowed, coupled with insufficient orders, business weakened, and some manufacturers were opening up markets
outside Guangdong.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
Lun aluminum inventory, October Lun aluminum inventory downward trend was interrupted, and only in the middle of two days, LME aluminum inventory increased by more than 150,000 tons, the decline in the second half of the year slowed down significantly, as of October 31, LME aluminum inventory in 1047950 tons, a sharp increase of 57,400 tons from the end of September, LME aluminum inventory increased, adding pressure
to the originally weak London aluminum price.
Shanghai aluminum inventory, the week after the National Day holiday Shanghai aluminum inventory increased, the range of 10,420 tons, but then returned to the downward trend, as of October 26, the Shanghai exchange aluminum inventory 814042 tons, a decrease of 18,214 tons from the end of September, a decrease of 5.
5%; In addition, as of November 1, Shanghai was 346,000 tons, Wuxi 659,000 tons, Hangzhou 97,000 tons, Nanhai 227,000 tons, Gongyi 95,000 tons, Tianjin 56,000 tons, Chongqing 22,000 tons, Linyi 23,000 tons, a total of 1.
525 million tons, down 65,000 tons
from 1.
59 million tons at the end of September.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketIn October, the price of scrap aluminum followed the price of aluminum down, South China fell more around 150 yuan, aluminum line followed the fall is more obvious, has fallen to around 12,000; East China fell more than 100-200 yuan, the variety difference is more obvious, the current mainstream receipt price of aluminum alloy spray coating is 10200-10300, aluminum wire is 11800, can 8600 around, aluminum chips, aluminum shavings are mainly priced by water output, clean waterless and oil-free water above 85 mainstream price is 9100-10600 yuan / tons
.
In terms of market transactions: the market is sluggish, the price of scrap aluminum is constantly declining, the willingness of holders to ship is reduced, and they choose to cover goods or raise prices to ship, and the market circulation source is reduced; In terms of recycled aluminum plants, because the demand in October was far less than expected, the increase in orders from downstream enterprises was not obvious, the purchase price of scrap aluminum raw materials by manufacturers was more serious, and due to the decline in recycled aluminum ingots, and the relatively firm price of scrap aluminum raw materials led to narrowing of manufacturers' profits, the overall transaction of the market did not reflect the characteristics of
the peak season.
In terms of environmental protection: the second batch of central ecological environmental protection inspectors "looking back" has been fully launched, and environmental protection efforts in many places have been increased, 1.
The environmental protection inspection team settled in key cities in the Yangtze River Delta region on October 31; 2.
The mobilization meeting of the protection inspection team to carry out the "review" work in Hubei was held in Wuhan; 3.
Dali Town, Nanhai District, held a special rectification work conference for village-level industrial parks, deployed the next stage of special rectification of the scrap metal (plastic) recycling industry "scattered, chaotic and polluted", and emphasized the start of traffic control measures
in area A from November 1.
Scrap aluminum prices are currently at a low level, holders are willing to hold prices highlighted, short-term deep fall space is limited, but the rebound lacks momentum, it is expected that scrap aluminum prices in November are expected to stop falling and stabilize
.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
This month's Shanghai aluminum shock after falling, the macro atmosphere has not yet warmed up, and the domestic heating season canceled production restrictions, so that aluminum prices rise momentum is insufficient, Shanghai aluminum main force once fell, intraday fell below 14000 important threshold support, from the plate point of view, Shanghai aluminum rising momentum is not strong, but after continuous decline, short-term does not rule out a technical rebound, or return to 14000 around the shock
.
Lack of favorable boost, medium and long-term weak trend unchanged, below focus on the support of the 13500 mark, and lack of positive boost, it is expected that the Shanghai aluminum shock in November will stabilize
.
Lun aluminum fell back within the month, rising as much as 10.
86% in just 4 trading days at the beginning of the month; But the good times did not last long, and then gave up all the gains, and finally returned to the shock near the 2000 mark, lack of favorable boost, and China's economic growth slowdown, the dollar index continued to rise, the plummeting of U.
S.
stocks and other negative influences, Lun aluminum all the way down, intraday fell below the 2000 important mark support, hit a new low in 13 months, the medium and long-term shock weak trend unchanged, but after a continuous decline in the market, short-term does not rule out technical adjustments
.
In terms of spot, as of October 31, East China spot aluminum quotation was 13980-14020 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan from 9 yuan
.
Spot discount 50; From the trend point of view, aluminum prices have limited room to rise, and it is expected to continue to maintain a volatile market in November, but after continuing to fall, a technical rebound is not ruled out, and the overall fluctuation range of spot aluminum is 1.
36-14,300
.
