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Aluminum market noon comment: oil prices rebounded, overnight Lun aluminum closed up 0.
46%; Domestic aluminum fundamentals are healthy, spot transactions are good, downstream replenishment pushes up premiums to support aluminum prices and short-term costs are difficult to fall, and aluminum is expected to rise
.
Crude oil rose sharply overnight, and Lun aluminum fluctuated slightly higher, opening slightly lower at $
2197 today.
Lun aluminum night opened high and closed at 18355
.
Shanghai aluminum trading positions are declining, and market sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see
.
Aluminum inventories rose slightly after the holiday, but the recent improvement in domestic consumption, the peak season is gradually coming, and there is cost support below the aluminum price, and the medium term may be range-bound or moderately rebound
.
Aluminum prices weakened due to a surge in overseas inventories, with inventory of aluminium registered warehouse receipts on the London Metal Exchange up 19% and 63%
this week.
At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic electrolytic aluminum fundamentals is not prominent, and the low inventory base before the holiday is not concentrated after the holiday, and the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory is not as expected, and the low inventory pattern of the domestic aluminum market is maintained
.
The cost of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to go down, providing bottom support
in the short term.
On the whole, there are many supply-side disturbances at home and abroad, but the medium and long-term global demand expectations are pessimistic, and it may be difficult for aluminum prices to break through the shock pattern
in the short term.