Observation: Will the spring of international oil prices come?

Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have been ups and downs, with the petroleum and petrochemical industry being the first to bear the brunt.

Winter is coming.

The international oil prices that have just bid farewell to the "eventful autumn", can they survive this winter and usher in the warmth of spring?

Falling oil prices: "It's all caused by demand"

At the end of October, the price of crude oil fell below US$40/barrel, a four-month low.

Why did the months of stability suddenly usher in a sharp drop?

1.

On October 23, the parties in Libya signed a ceasefire agreement, and next plans to increase crude oil production.

2.

"Millions of people are unemployed, more people work from home, people no longer commute, no longer meet with friends and family, or even go shopping.

　　3.
"OPEC+" plan to increase production

　　While demand is shrinking, the market expects an increase in crude oil production.

　　The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia plans to increase production before the second wave of epidemics sweeps through Europe and the United States.

　　4.
The U.
S.
election situation is confusing

　　It is difficult for the market to make accurate expectations for the US energy policy, and market information is affected.

　　At present, the downward trend of international crude oil prices has not continued.
Although there are many factors of market instability, the forces to stabilize the market are also quietly rising.

　　Oil price rebound: a variety of factors stabilize the market

　　Since November, international crude oil prices have begun to rise sharply, returning to the $40/barrel mark.

　　From a sharp drop to a sharp rise, what has the international oil price experienced?

　　1.
The immediate cause: The US crude oil inventory has exceeded market expectations and has dropped significantly, and the positive news of the breakthrough in the development of the new crown vaccine has stimulated oil prices to rise

　　2.
"Make up" factors: OPEC + Alliance quickly stated that it would consider delaying production plans

　　Although a definite policy has not yet been formed, the news of delays in production increases and even continued production cuts revealed by all parties has boosted confidence in the crude oil futures market and directly stimulated the continued rise of crude oil prices.

　　3.
Natural disasters: Tropical storm Zeta landed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of schedule, and some crude oil production in the area was forced to stop

　　"OPEC+" pressure to reduce production and rescue the market soars

　　In the eventful season, everyone's expectation for "OPEC+" is straightforward: production reduction! Reduce production! Reduce production!

　　Its volume is too large.
The countries that make up the "OPEC+" control over 50% of the world's oil supply and 90% of the proven oil reserves.

　　Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia and other oil countries are all members of this organization.
The volume is large, and the right to speak is also great, so the responsibility for reducing production is naturally great.

　　Implementation of "OPEC+" production cuts

　　The first stage: the scale of production reduction is 9.
7 million barrels/day (May 1, 2020 ~ June 30, 2020)

　　The second stage: the scale of production reduction is 7.
7 million barrels/day (July 1st-December 31st, 2020)

　　The third stage: the scale of production reduction is 5.
8 million barrels/day (January 2021 to April 30, 2022)

　　After the International Energy Agency issued the latest warning that "the capacity of the market to accommodate oil is still limited," the industry generally called for "OPEC+" to reassess the scale of the third phase of production cuts that will begin in January next year.
The next round of "OPEC+" ministerial meeting will be held from November 30 to December 1.

　　Every time the production cut plan has been implemented with twists and turns, can the production cut be achieved this time?

　　[Big coffee talk]

　　At the end of 2019, the head of market research at Resta Energy predicted that the oil price trend in 2020 will depend on three factors: one is the absence of a global economic recession, the second is OPEC's continued production cuts, and the third is the new regulations of the International Maritime Organization.
Implementation (ie introducing new stimuli).

　　。，。，，。

　　，2020。，，，。

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