November 30 Shanghai aluminum noon comment

In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks reported 1.
014 million tons on the 29th, down 03,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 85,500 tons, down 07,500 tons from last Thursday; October unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports were 479,500 tons, down 13,000 tons from the previous month, imports were 297,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from the previous month, the increase was mainly primary aluminum; Yunnan Wenshan aluminum accident reduced production and resumed power, and the two aluminum plants under Guangzhou Investment began to overhaul and stop production due to losses, and the start fell to 50%.
The production capacity will be affected by about 200,000 tons, Chongqing Qi can reduce production by about 30,000 tons, and the western hydropower production will be reduced by 50,000 tons; The processing cost of aluminum rods is high, and the amount of ingots is declining
in some areas.

In the early stage of the Spring Festival, it is expected that the situation of large spot discounts is difficult to reverse, the inventory is high, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has moved down sharply, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the upward resistance of aluminum prices is large, and it is recommended to sell short
in the medium term.
If after the short-term over-fall, the spot discount narrows, the transaction warms up, and the price has a certain room for repair, because the short-term destocking has accelerated, there is a certain support, and the risk of chasing shorts is noted
.