November 2021 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

First, the fundamentals

1.
According to data from the online inquiry platform of the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of alumina (alumina, except artificial corundum) in October were 219,433.
59 tons, down 39.
28% month-on-month and up 25.
92%
year-on-year.
Among them, Australia was the largest supplier, importing 119,336 tons from the country in the month, down 49.
07% month-on-month and up 76.
9%
year-on-year.

2.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2021, China's alumina output was 6.
291 million tons, down 2.
2% year-on-year; The cumulative output from January to October was 65.
153 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
6%.

3.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in October was 3.
132 million tons, down 1.
8% year-on-year; The cumulative output from January to October was 32.
368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
5
%.

4.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of aluminum in October was 4.
840 million tons, down 5.
7% year-on-year; The cumulative output from January to October was 49.
669 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.
3%.

The output of aluminum alloy in October was 911,000 tons, down 2.
5% year-on-year; The cumulative output from January to October was 9.
245 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.
8
%.

5.
According to data from the International Aluminum Association, global primary aluminum production in October 2021 was 5,689 thousand tons, compared with 5,617 thousand tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.
28%.

From January to October, global primary aluminum production reached 56,295 thousand tons, compared with 54,121 thousand tons in the same period last year, an increase of 4.
02%
year-on-year.

6.
In October 2021, China's export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 479599 tons, and the export volume in October decreased by 2.
52% from the previous month and increased by 14.
6%
year-on-year.
Although the export volume in October has shrunk compared with the previous month, the overall performance is still relatively good, the current overseas epidemic has been gradually controlled, demand has rebounded, and overseas aluminum mills have reduced production to varying degrees, and the export profit of some processed materials has increased compared with the previous period, and it is expected that the export volume of aluminum products will continue to increase momentum
.

Second, the market review

In November, Shanghai aluminum remained in a weak state, and the price center of gravity fell below the 20,000 support level
.
Market sentiment eased at the beginning of the month, with aluminum prices hovering
around 20,000.
In the middle of the month, the real estate sector came under pressure, consumption expectations deteriorated, and aluminum prices plunged again, once approaching the 10,000 support level
.
Then the power rationing policy eased, the downstream operating rate recovered, and the price rebounded
again.
Near the end of the month, affected by the mutant virus, the market's risk aversion increased again, and the price fell back below Wanjiu
.

After the introduction of production reduction policies in various places in September, the National Day began to be gradually implemented, entering November, there are still some areas in the southwest and northwest regions that require a certain degree of production reduction, and the market rumors that during the Winter Olympics, Inner Mongolia Baotou and other areas still have a certain reduction in production, and the operating capacity is expected to fall below
37 million tons.
In mid-November, Yunnan Province began to have surplus electricity, under the negotiation between the enterprise and the government, the Wenshan area aluminum plant began to prepare for the resumption of production, but due to the accident in Yunnan Aluminum Wenshan caused a setback in the resumption of production, but then according to the company's announcement, the resumption of production
is now restarted.

On the whole, although there is a reduction in production and a resumption of production, the overall operation capacity changes are small, and even there is a short-term downward possibility, but the whole trend is the process of gradual climbing of production capacity, the impact of the supply side on the market lies in the strong reality and weak expectations, considering that it is about to enter the Spring Festival holiday, the off-season of the warehouse brings a certain buffer to the subsequent peak season of insufficient supply, leaving time for the capacity to climb, so in the long run, it is difficult for the supply side to have a shortage
.

3.
Inventory

As of November 25, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks: 95,000 tons in Shanghai, 41.
1 tons in Wuxi, 246,000 tons in the South China Sea, 87,000 tons in Hangzhou, 83,000 tons in Gongyi, 69,000 tons in Tianjin, 2,000 tons in Chongqing, 24,000 tons in Linyi, and a total of 1.
017 million tons
of aluminum ingot stocks in the place of consumption.
The contribution of inventories in the South China Sea and Shanghai regions mainly decreased
.
As of November 26, the total position of aluminum in the previous period was 518320 lots, a decrease of 19617 lots from the previous month's 537937, and the price center of gravity continued to fall this month, and the total position decreased
.

Fourth, the waste market

This month, the scrap aluminum market has increased its volume, the good news in the scrap aluminum market has increased, and the overall market sentiment has improved
.
On the last trading day at the end of the month, the morning aluminum price fluctuated lower, the morning market inquiry and quotation atmosphere was better, because the impact of the mutant strain "Omicron" on market sentiment weakened, aluminum prices gradually returned to normal, scrap aluminum suppliers shipped normally, and the trading volume was acceptable; The current orders of downstream recycled aluminum manufacturers are acceptable, and the appropriate amount of replenishment is available
.

At the end of the month, the price of aluminum rose slightly, the spot price of aluminum once again exceeded more than 19,000 yuan / ton, the highest price difference in the week reached 400 yuan / ton, the market transaction was acceptable, and traders shipped positively
.
In terms of scrap aluminum, the current market situation is picking up, and some of the backlog of goods in the early stage of holders is circulating in large quantities, and trading is active
.
Downstream aluminum processing enterprises are still mainly maintained and offered, and the raw material inventory in the factory area remains low, and it is mainly
necessary to purchase.

Stimulated by the leakage accident of Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
and the good news of real estate, scrap aluminum prices rebounded
this month.
At present, the leakage cell electrolyzer of Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
has been repaired and has begun to resume production with electricity; Although there has been news of the loosening of real estate policies recently, it will still take some time for the favorable implementation of the policy side, and the current downward certainty of the real estate industry is strong
.
On the whole, it is difficult for the scrap aluminum market to have a large-scale rebound
in the near future.

5.
Market outlook

The aluminum market is currently under the logic of macro weakness and fundamental
neutrality.
In the short term, the supply side has high inventory, low production capacity, and sufficient supply; On the demand side, there is a certain demand for replenishment downstream at the end of the year, the current aluminum rod processing fee remains high, the aluminum rod inventory continues to deteriorate, the import of aluminum ingots has arrived one after another, and after the gradual reduction of customs clearance, the inventory of aluminum ingots has peaked and fallen; The cost side remains collapsing
.
In the medium and long term, around the Spring Festival began to build inventory, into the seasonal off-season, the outlook for next year is more affected by the macro economy such as real estate and the expectation of the resumption of production, if the supply side appears black swan again, then the price is easy to rise and fall
.