November 2019 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

First, the fundamentals

1.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in October was 2.
88 million tons, down 1.
8%
year-on-year.
The total output from January to October was 29.
24 million tons, an increase of 0.
7%
year-on-year.
Electrolytic aluminum supply and demand pattern marginal improvement, since this year, electrolytic aluminum supply side production reduction obvious, at the beginning of the year due to high-cost aluminum enterprises continued to lose and actively reduce production, the second half of the year due to frequent accidents led to passive production reduction, although the year new production capacity and resumption of production capacity have been put in, but the overall electrolytic aluminum production is not as good as the same period last year
.

2.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national output of alumina in October 2019 was 5.
968 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
6%, and the total output from January to October was 60.
772 million tons, an increase of 4.
4%
year-on-year.
Due to the year-on-year decline in electrolytic aluminum production, alumina demand is in a sluggish state, but the supply side capacity increase continues, even if the production capacity in the northern high-cost areas actively reduces production, the supply side is still abundant, and under the price advantage, alumina imports continue to rise
.
Under the dual supply pressure of internal and external, the price
of alumina is suppressed.

3.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's untiled aluminum and aluminum exports in October 2019 were 430,000 tons, down 10.
2% year-on-year, and the cumulative export from January to October was 4.
8 million tons, an increase of 1.
4%
year-on-year.
Among them, the export of unwrought aluminum (including aluminum alloy) in October was 43,206 tons, down 5.
8% year-on-year, and the cumulative export from January to October was 487628 tons, an increase of 11.
3%
year-on-year.
In October, 390,000 tons of aluminum were exported, down 10.
7% year-on-year, and the cumulative export from January to October was 4.
31 million tons, up 0.
4%
year-on-year.

4.
Data show that China's alumina imports in October were 240,000 tons, an increase of 60% from 150,000 tons in September, and an increase of 397.
9% over the same period last year, continuing to surge year-on-year, mainly due to the low
base in the same period last year.
From January to October, the cumulative import of alumina was 1.
03 million tons, an increase of 125.
3%
year-on-year.
In terms of exports, alumina exports in October were 4,239 tons, down 99.
1% year-on-year, and cumulative exports from January to October were 227373 tons, down 77.
2%
year-on-year.

5.
Data show that China's scrap aluminum imports in October were 60,240 tons, down 34.
69% from last year and 47.
32%
from September.
Among them, the United States is the largest supplier, China imported 19,100 tons of scrap aluminum from the United States that month, down 27.
92% year-on-year and 31.
17%
month-on-month.
Malaysia followed closely behind, with China importing 5,860 tonnes of scrap aluminium from Malaysia in October, an increase of nearly 200%
year-on-year.
Due to the sharp reduction in approvals in the fourth quarter, scrap aluminum imports in November were still insufficient
.

Second, the market review

At the beginning of this month, the macro recovery, as well as the firm support of spots, the main force of Shanghai aluminum broke through the 14,000 mark intraday, and the highest climbed to 14120, but the fundamentals lacked substantial positive boost, and macro uncertainty still inhibited the trend of aluminum prices.
Obviously, the pressure of Shanghai aluminum 14,000 mark remains, and then the shock fell, the lowest intraday down to 13635, the overall shock in the 13600-13900 range; short-term lack of favorable boost, and although the domestic destocking trend continues, but the speed of dematerialization slows down significantly, after entering December, downstream consumption gradually weakens, Shanghai aluminum materials will still be under pressure at 14,000, the overall focus on 1.
36-14,000 range oscillation
.

In terms of the external market, this month Lun aluminum first rose and then fell, at the beginning of the month by the optimism of Sino-US trade negotiations boosted, Lun aluminum volatility rose, intraday breakthrough 1800 mark, the highest climbed to 1822 US dollars, but global demand is less than expected, and Sino-US trade still has an uncertain impact, Lun aluminum gave up gains, obviously broke through the 1800 US dollars above the pressure remains, and then the shock fell, the lowest intraday down to 1728 US dollars, the overall shock in the 1720-1780 US dollar range oscillation, Sino-US trade tensions still have mixed signals, short-term London aluminum shock trend continues, it is expected that in December London aluminum narrow range shock, pay attention to the 1720-1820 range shock, London aluminum breakthrough 1800 mark pressure remains
.

In terms of the market, the market supply circulation is not much, the holders actively ship, the middleman has a strong willingness to receive goods at a low price, and the transaction between the two sides is acceptable, but the purchase volume of a large market is small, lack of this part of participation, the overall transaction between traders is general
.
East China, this month's aluminum price first rose and then fell, and then stabilized, at the beginning of the month because of the Shanghai aluminum buying activity in the month, Shanghai aluminum near strong far weak trend is obvious, spot firm, but the fundamental lack of substantial positive boost, obviously with the momentum is limited, and delivery for the month, far and near contract price difference makes aluminum prices stagnate, the lowest down to 13880; Then the shock rebounded
.
In South China, as of November 29, the price of aluminum ingots in South China was between 14190-14290 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton
from the end of October.

3.
Inventory

As of November 28, the total inventory of Lun aluminum was 1,230,300 tons, an increase of 271,250 tons, or 28.
28%, from the end of October; Obviously, inventory growth is also one of the factors inhibiting the weak trend of
Lunaluminum.
As of November 22, the total aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Exchange was 270787 tons, down 24,050 tons, or 8.
16%,
from the end of October.
Domestic social stocks, as of November 28, Shanghai area 135,000 tons, Wuxi area 233,000 tons, Hangzhou area 49,000 tons, Gongyi area 43,000 tons, Nanhai area 215,000 tons, Tianjin 53,000 tons, Linyi 05,000 tons, Chongqing 22,000 tons, consumption area aluminum ingot inventory a total of 755,000 tons
.

Fourth, the waste market

Aluminum scrap prices rose overall in November; At present, the mainstream price of clean machine aluminum in South China is around 9900, and the price of aluminum wire is around 12300; At present, the mainstream receipt price of aluminum alloy spraying old materials in East China is around 10300, aluminum wire is around 11900, cans are around 8550, and clean broken bridges are about
9700.

In terms of the market, due to the uncertainty of macro news and the general lack of scrap aluminum supply, the price of scrap aluminum has risen
.
Holders are even more covered with prices, downstream manufacturers are afraid of heights are more obvious, a small number of goods, the overall market transaction is average
.
Recently, the number of buyers inquiring about high-quality sources such as 6 series, cans, aluminum ash, and aluminum chips has increased
.
There are very few
sources of tickets on the market.
In addition, it is reported that due to environmental protection and production restrictions in Henan during the heating season, there are different degrees of production reduction
.
The recovery of the automobile market and the construction stage of a large number of buildings have helped aluminum prices rise, while the shortage of scrap aluminum supplies is expected to increase steadily in December
.
It is recommended that the holder is conducive to normal shipment, and the manufacturer prepares raw materials on demand and receives the goods normally
.

5.
Market outlook

This month's Shanghai aluminum low volatility, short-term lack of favorable boost, and although the domestic destocking trend continues, but the speed of destocking slows down significantly, after entering December, downstream consumption gradually weakened, Shanghai aluminum materials will still be under pressure at 14,000, the overall focus on 1.
36-14,000 range shocks
.
This month, Lun aluminum first rose and then fell, Sino-US trade tensions still have mixed signals, short-term London aluminum shock trend continues, it is expected that in December London aluminum narrow range shock, pay attention to 1720-1820 range oscillation, Lun aluminum broke through the 1800 mark pressure remains
.
In terms of spot, the market transaction is general, the fundamentals lack substantial favorable boost, and demand is about to enter the off-season, short-term aluminum price volatility pattern remains unchanged, East China spot aluminum in December focus on 1.
38-14,100 range volatility, bargain bargain can be bought on demand
.