November 18 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

Recently, alumina and coal prices have continued to decline, and cost support has weakened
.
Although electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Qinghai Province are expected to reduce production, it is expected that the disturbance of electrolytic aluminum supply will gradually decrease
in the later period due to the gradual easing of national power cuts.
Recently, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has rebounded, and demand has improved slightly, but the inventory destocking process is not smooth, the medium and long-term real estate market is still facing downward pressure, and aluminum consumption expectations are not optimistic
.
From the perspective of funds, there have been many short positions in the near future, and it is difficult to see a significant improvement in aluminum market consumption, which does not support the rise of aluminum prices
.

At present, the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is gradually weakening, after the easing of the power rationing policy, the market supply tends to stabilize, and the sharp decline in real estate data compared with previous periods highlights the weakening expectation of downstream consumption.
Aluminum prices short-term or shock adjustment in the range of 1.
8-18,600, maintaining a trend of easy to fall and difficult to rise, but considering that macro policies are also biased towards bearishness, the follow-up does not rule out the possibility of further downward exploration, the upstream and downstream of the operation can be temporarily wait-and-see, the high level of the cargo appropriate shipment, the expected spot aluminum shock is weak
.