Non-OPEC crude oil production will fall by nearly 500,000 barrels per day in 2016

The collapse in oil prices will force non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) producers to cut output
.
The IEA expects non-OPEC crude oil production to fall by nearly 500,000 barrels per day to 57.
7 million barrels per day in 2016, the biggest decline in nearly two decades, further rebalancing
the supply-demand imbalance crude market.

The IEA pointed out that U.
S.
oil production may be hit, and the decline in U.
S.
crude oil production may give OPEC a greater advantage in market share in 2016, so OPEC may expand production
next year.

U.
S.
oil production fell to an 11-month low in August and is likely to continue to decline
in 2016, according to data released by the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Oil producers have cut spending on new production programs, and the number of U.
S.
rigs has fallen
sharply since late 2014.

At present, crude oil has been low for a long time, which has shown signs
of growth in crude oil demand.
According to the data provided by the IEA's monthly report, most of the demand growth comes from developed countries, including the US market
.
However, Saudi Arabia's gradually increasing production has met the additional crude oil demand
.
The IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 1.
7 million b/d in 2015, a five-year high, and by 1.
4 million b/d
in 2016.

However, in this oil war, OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia have also been hit
hard.
Previous data showed that 90% of Saudi Arabia's fiscal revenue comes from the crude oil industry
.
According to International Monetary Fund estimates, Saudi Arabia's budget deficit will be about 20% of its gross domestic product, or about $140 billion
.

At the same time, even if the strategy of low oil prices has hit US shale oil production, the current situation of far oversupply in the crude oil market has not fundamentally changed
.
EIA released the latest inventory data on the 10th, showing that as of September 4, U.
S.
crude oil inventories increased by 2.
57 million barrels, an increase higher than expected
.

The study notes that the oil market oversupply is expected to continue into next year
.
Goldman Sachs estimated the price of NYMEX crude at $48.
10 a barrel in 2015, compared with its previous estimate of $
52.
Goldman Sachs lowered the price of NYMEX crude oil for 2016 to $45 from its previous estimate of $57 per barrel, while lowering its 2015 Brent crude price forecast to $53.
7 from an earlier estimate of $58.
2 per barrel, and from $62 per barrel to $49.
5 per barrel in 2016
.