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Overnight market sentiment turned sharply better, non-ferrous metals rebounded, boosted aluminum prices also rose sharply once approached the 14,000 yuan mark, but the current aluminum market fundamentals are still weak, coupled with the State Council through China through China to impose tariffs on 128 commodities in the United States, market sentiment or again affected, aluminum prices will follow the trend, it is recommended to go short
at the high.
In terms of news, China's official PMI in March slightly exceeded expectations, and the domestic manufacturing industry is still in the expansion range, plus the survey shows that the recent recovery of nonferrous downstream enterprises has performed well, stimulating nonferrous demand and providing some support
for nonferrous metals 。 On the issue of trade, China and the United States have each other's attack and defense, the Ministry of Commerce decided to terminate tariff concessions on imports of American origin from April 2, compared with the previous market concerns, in the scope of taxation did not show China's attitude of wanting to expand the trade war, China used tariffs to counter the United States and win over the United States for trade negotiations The meaning is stronger, the trade war so far should not be overly worried, but trade measures introduced at any time may increase market volatility
.
At the same time, some regions have begun to introduce production restriction measures, and the impact of environmental protection on nonferrous metals has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the downstream demand state
.
In terms of fundamentals, the recent CSPT finalized copper concentrate TC of $78 / ton in the second quarter, down 10.
3% month-on-month, hitting a new low in recent years, reflecting the market's expectation of tightening copper supply in the later period, LME copper stocks fell 5,100 tons to 383,000 tons on Friday, and domestic copper stocks remained at about
300,000 tons.
In terms of spot, the domestic spot end discount remained at about 150 yuan / ton, and the downstream market received goods at the dip recently
.
Short-term lack of further news stimulation, the decline in domestic aluminum social inventory reflects the continued recovery of downstream consumption, aluminum supply and demand structure is improving, coupled with the current aluminum price touching the cost area, will lead to a slowdown in the growth rate of new production capacity, short-term aluminum price shock higher probability is greater
.
The main 1805 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher overnight and then pulled back to 13705 yuan, and later rebounded sharply to 13955 yuan, and fell slightly before closing, closing at 13885 yuan, up 155 yuan, or 1.
13%.
Technically, MACD and KDJ are golden crosses, and there is a short-term rebound demand, but the aluminum market is under pressure after touching the 20-day moving average above, and the trend is weak, and there is still room
for decline below.