Non-ferrous metals oscillated back down and aluminum maintained range consolidation

The latest inventory of LME aluminum was 994125 tons, an increase of 48,750 tons from the previous trading day, and the aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 153769 tons, a decrease of 676 tons
from the previous trading day.

In terms of spot, the transaction price of Shanghai and tin in the early stage was between 13830-13840 yuan / ton, and the discount was 10 yuan / ton - flat water in the month, up nearly 30 yuan / ton from yesterday, and the transaction price of Hangzhou was between
13850-13870 yuan / ton.
With the rapid rise of aluminum in the future, the market quotation will rise, and it will begin to concentrate between 13850-13870 yuan / ton, and the plate will be pasted 20-10 yuan / ton, although there is a quotation, but the market wait-and-see mood rises again, fear of heights is obvious, the actual transaction is rare, and the transaction heat is rapidly reduced
.
The downstream maintains an on-demand procurement rhythm and receives flat goods
.

According to CME "Fed Watch": Fed funds futures hint that traders expect a 28.
7% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its July 30-31 meeting, compared to 32.
8%
before the retail sales data.
Fed funds futures hint that traders expect a 71.
4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its July 30-31 meeting, compared to 67.
2%
ahead of retail sales data.

The Fed's July interest rate cut expectations have resumed, macro risk appetite has risen, colored sectors have generally risen, and volatility has increased
significantly.
However, we still maintain the view that aluminum prices are difficult to continue to rebound in the off-season, based on the current downstream consumption situation is not ideal, spot inventories have begun to accumulate, raw material alumina prices are still continuing to fall, short-term sentiment improvement is difficult to support aluminum prices too high
.