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The dollar edged higher on Monday, non-ferrous metals generally pulled, copper prices gave up the previous week's gains, and Shanghai copper opened higher and lower during the day
.
As overseas inventory levels continue to fall during the holiday, the domestic post-holiday spot accumulation situation is the focus of market attention, and if the spot tightness exceeds expectations, the price may be unexpectedly stronger
.
At the macro level, the US non-farm payrolls data was unexpectedly strong, recording the largest increase in three months, which strengthened the market's expectations
of a hawkish Fed rate hike.
However, the recent sharp rise in non-US government bond yields has largely dampened the strength of the dollar
.
Fundamentally, as of January 28, the TC index rose slightly, and the Erenhot railway port has successively resumed import business such as tons of bagged copper concentrate, and the resumption of the port has eased the tension at the domestic mine end in the early stage, and it is expected that the domestic copper mine end supply will be relatively abundant
after the holiday.
In terms of imports, as of January 28, the LME0-3Back structure continued and expanded, and the import window was closed
.
In terms of consumption, affected by the year-end holiday, as of January 28, the weekly copper rod operating rate was 34.
54%, a sharp decrease of 22.
1%
month-on-month.
After the Spring Festival, most copper rod enterprises will resume work normally, and the copper rod operating rate will rebound, but due to the impact of downstream resumption time, logistics and transportation, and demand, it is expected that the recovery rate will be limited
.
In terms of stocks, on February 7, the LME destocked 02,200 tons to 80,000 tons, and SHFE stocks rose 0.
4 million tons to 19,100 tons
.
Overall, the current fundamental changes are still limited, while the influence of macro factors is relatively intricate, and copper prices may maintain a volatile pattern
.