Nitrogen Fertilizers: Sufficient Supply, High Prices

Editor 's note With the warmer weather, spring ploughing and preparation work has been started in various places

relatively abundant supply

From the current point of view, although some domestic nitrogen fertilizer enterprises have stopped production or reduced load due to factors such as shortage of raw materials and environmental protection control, the overall supply of nitrogen fertilizer during spring ploughing is still sufficient due to the active guarantee of supply by all parties

From the perspective of production, domestic nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers face two major problems

"But in order to ensure the supply of spring ploughing, all manufacturers are actively overcoming difficulties and trying to produce more fertilizers

According to a survey conducted by the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association on February 15, the national daily output of urea is about 155,500 tons, and the operating rate is about 70.

In response to the severe supply guarantee situation in spring ploughing this year, the government made special arrangements as early as the end of last year, focusing on ensuring the supply of fertilizer production factors such as coal, electricity, and natural gas

According to Wu Yuanli, an analyst at Longzhong Information, from December last year to January this year, the average daily output of urea in the country was 10,000 to 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year

In addition, reserve fertilizer will also play a role in ensuring supply

　　On the whole, during the spring ploughing period, the supply of nitrogen fertilizer is relatively sufficient, and farmers' demand for fertilizer is guaranteed

　　Demand is steadily increasing

　　According to estimates by agricultural experts, the demand for agricultural nitrogen fertilizer in China during the spring ploughing period in 2022 is expected to be 9.

　　However, this year, the planting area of ​​soybeans has been greatly expanded, and soybeans themselves have nitrogen-fixing root nodules, so they basically do not need too much nitrogen fertilizer.

　　Relative to agriculture, the demand for nitrogen fertilizers in industry has increased even more

　　Feiyitong's team analyzed that at present, small and medium-sized industrial users in various places have started construction and agricultural demands have been released one after another.

　　Prices remain high

　　At present, the ex-factory quotations of urea are mostly 2550~2750 yuan (ton price, the same below), the ex-factory quotations of ammonium chloride are mostly 1150~1250 yuan (dry ammonium), and the ex-factory quotations of ammonium sulfate are mostly 1300~1500 yuan, compared with the same period last year.

　　Lu Zhijun, general manager of Guangdong Yuexin Agricultural Materials Co.

　　First, the price of raw materials has risen
.
At present, the average price of mainstream anthracite coal arriving at the factory is 2020 yuan, up 68.
76% year-on-year and 2.
28% higher than the same period last month; the average mainstream price of gasification bituminous coal arriving at the factory is 1,253 yuan, up 49.
52% year-on-year and 9.
43% higher than the same period last month
.
At the same time, under the influence of geopolitical and other factors, the international oil price also rose to more than 90 US dollars / barrel
.
High energy prices supported the nitrogen fertilizer market
.

　　The second is the low social inventory
.
Since last year, fertilizer prices have been running at a high level.
Distributors are afraid of taking risks and generally do not dare to store more.
Winter storage has been delayed again and again.
The inventory in the hands of some small and medium-sized distributors is less than half of previous years
.
At present, the supply of low-priced goods in the circulation link has been basically digested, and all the high-priced goods are in hand.
As soon as there is a little disturbance in the market, the price will rise
.

　　The third is the high level of the international market
.
At present, the international price of urea is 500~670 US dollars, which is equivalent to 3200~4200 yuan in RMB.
The international price is a bit higher than the domestic price
.
Although the export of urea has been restricted through export legal inspections and the direct connection between domestic and foreign markets has been cut off, the high price in the international market still has a certain support for the domestic market
.

　　Fourth, the impact on the environment
.
As a part of the large chemical industry, nitrogen fertilizer is inevitably affected by the overall chemical market trend
.
Many chemical product markets are now operating at a high level, and varieties with doubled prices abound
.
From the horizontal comparison of the fertilizer market, the contract price of potash fertilizer this year is as high as US$590, which is more than double the US$247 last year
.

　　Against this background, it is natural for nitrogen fertilizer prices to remain high during spring ploughing
.