New production capacity increased, aluminum prices were slightly under pressure

On the macro front, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in August was 49.
9, falling below 50 for the first time since September 2009, less than expected and the previous value, indicating that the downward pressure on the US economy has increased significantly, investors' risk aversion has heated up, and the external base metals have generally weakened
.
The August manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone, Germany and France improved slightly, higher than expected and the previous reading, and the downward pressure eased slightly but remained
.
The three-day Jackson Hole conference was held recently, and the market will be watching Powell's keynote
closely.

In terms of spot, the transaction price of Shanghai Wuxi market is between 14360-14380 yuan / ton, the opposite plate rises between 10-30 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between
14380-14390 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, LME aluminum stocks were 941,350 tons, down 6,575 tons from the previous trading day, and the aluminum warehouse receipts in the previous period were 147548 tons, down 874 tons
from the previous trading day.
On August 19, 2019, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
063 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a year-to-date decrease of 247,000 tons, and a decrease of 720,000 tons
from the same period last year.

In terms of news, on August 21, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released data showing that the supply gap of the primary aluminum market from January to June 2019 was 492,000 tons, and the gap for the whole year of 2018 was 713,000 tons
.

Yesterday, the two institutions released a slight conflict in data, one increase and one flat, the impact on the market is neutral and weak, and aluminum prices remain volatile
.
In the context of low production capacity itself, frequent emergencies affect vulnerable output, especially the output of electrolytic aluminum affected by heavy rainfall before exceeds expectations, superimposed on the peak season is about to open, resulting in less supply than demand, accelerated destocking speed, and providing the basis for aluminum prices to rise
.
The market pays close attention to the next inventory performance, once the smooth destocking is opened and confirmed, it will stimulate aluminum prices to rise again, otherwise it will be in a state of rest
.