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Last week, natural rubber showed a rebound and fell market, the main RU2205 contract of Shanghai rubber rushed up to 15240 yuan / ton, and fell rapidly to 14825 yuan / ton on Friday night, and the overall shock pattern did not change
.
In the later stage, the downstream tire factories will stop production one after another near the Spring Festival, and it is difficult for the price of tianjiao to have upward momentum under the condition of a phased slowdown in demand, and the short-term continuation of the shock pattern
.
The purchase price of raw materials in Thailand rose: raw film 56.
00, up 0.
99; smoke film 60.
03, up 0.
71; glue 56.
50, up 2.
00; Cup glue 48.
85, up 0.
45
.
:(THB/kg).
The Thai Meteorological Department reported that some rain is expected in southern Thailand from January 18 to 22, so this estimate will not have a significant impact
on normal production of natural rubber by then.
Thailand's output trend reduction will be close to the beginning, there is no expectation of a significant increase in arrivals before mid-February, there is a demand for stocking before the downstream tire festival and the Spring Festival holiday is later than expected, the holders are reluctant to sell, and the price of rubber is supported by the increase in the number of capital inflows
.
However, in the short term, Qingdao's inventory slowdown, even stop falling and rise, and the month-on-month decline in tire starts is still suppressed, and the buyer's resistance to high prices is still strong and slightly pressured
.
Approaching the Spring Festival, the demand end began to weaken, and the downstream tire plant initially stopped production from January 20, and the entire operation will further weaken
.
It is expected that the value of natural rubber will be dominated by strong shocks for the time being, and pay attention to the holiday dynamics
of downstream factories.
The long-short game is still intense, the recent continuous attempts to break through upwards are slightly insufficient, it is expected that the short-term wide shock pattern is difficult to change, there is a certain possibility of upward movement in the range, and the bullish expectation
is maintained in the medium and long term.
Pay attention to the arrival situation, downstream tire holiday and pre-holiday stocking, and Qingdao inventory
.
