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On Friday, the natural rubber commodity index was 40.
45, up 0.
52% from the previous day, down 59.
55% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.
00 points (2011-09-01), and up 48.
28%
from the lowest point of 27.
28 points on April 02, 2020.
Shanghai rubber continued to shake slightly, with an amplitude of about 50-100 yuan / ton, and spot rubber was adjusted
with the disk.
Macro aspect, the international crude oil fundamentals long and short game, Omicron strain for economic recovery is still hindered, recent IEA expectations for crude oil oversupply continue to pressure oil prices, but OPEC+ maintains a moderate production increase policy, tight supply to the oil market to form a strong support, crude oil prices may rise
slightly.
On the supply side, China's Yunnan production area has been completely stopped, rainy weather in southern Thailand affects production, in the case of China's production reduction, the global market has entered the annual end-of-year supply tight period, supply side support strengthened
.
In terms of imports and exports, China imported a total of 661,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November 2021, down 7%
from 711,000 tons in the same period in 2020, according to the General Administration of Customs of China.
As of December 9, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 64.
26%, an increase of 1.
3 percentage points month-on-month; the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 63.
77%, an increase of 1.
6 percentage points month-on-month; domestic heavy-duty truck sales continued to show weakness: data show that in November, China's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell 48,000 models of various types (invoice caliber), down 10% month-on-month and 65%
year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, the recent inflow of medium and large warehouses in Qingdao has decreased slightly month-on-month, and outbound has increased, and local general trade inventory has accelerated week-on-week destocking: on December 9, the inventory in the bonded zone was 65,200 tons, down 01,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.
66%
month-on-month.
Stocks outside the bonded zone were 252,800 tons, down 01,100 tons from the previous week and 0.
43%
month-on-month.
Total inventories were 318,000 tonnes, down 02,200 tonnes from the previous week and 0.
69%
month-on-month.
In terms of transportation, the freight industry was sluggish, Thailand's Tianjiao export transportation costs rose, ship cabins were tight, shipping schedules were delayed, and port arrivals increased slowly
.
It is expected that natural rubber will maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, paying attention to the progress of domestic cutting shutdown and rainfall in foreign production areas, as well as the operating rate and inventory of downstream factories
.
