Natural rubber is in the peak season, and Shanghai rubber has rebounded momentum

The amount of rubber collection in some rubber collection points in Hainan from June to July decreased by 30%-50% compared with the same period of previous years, and the amount of rubber collection points in Yunnan production areas also decreased
by 20%-30% compared with the same period of previous years.
First, continuous rainfall in the production area from June to July, affecting rubber tapping; Second, the price of raw materials is low, the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to tap rubber is slightly poor, some private rubber garden rubber tapping workers are nervous, and the output has declined
.
At present, the enthusiasm of processing plants is not high, and they mostly produce
according to order.
Hainan Rubber (601118, stock bar) in the early stage is mainly based on the production of whole milk, after the resumption of concentrated milk production, most of the early cargo orders are delivered, and the recent pre-sale of cargo at the end of August
.
On the other hand, although the production of tianjiao has obvious seasonal characteristics, the peak of production occurs in October and November, but the output growth is expected, and its pressure on the market is not very large
.
And as the bearish factors are partially digested, bullish opportunities may come
.

Domestic demand for tianjiao depends on imports to meet
.
If demand is sluggish, imports will fall
sharply.
Since March, China's imports of tianjiao have declined
for four consecutive months.
As of June, the import volume of Tianjiao was 305,000 tons, down 5.
6% month-on-month and 25.
9%
year-on-year.
At present, most tire factories adopt the procurement strategy of "reducing inventory, buying as you go", which is transmitted to the trade link, which will inhibit the import of
tianjiao.
Therefore, traders only import in moderation, supplemented by selling stocks
.
From the perspective of the changes in the inventory of tianjiao in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it has continuously fallen from 221,000 tons in March to 95,000 tons in mid-August, and the decline is particularly obvious
in July and August.

One of the important bearish factors in the market right now is the delivery pressure
of the 1609 contract.
In August, as the 1609 contract approached the delivery month, bulls were afraid of the pressure of huge warehouse receipts and turned to the far month contract, and the main funds of the Shanghai rubber market accelerated the transfer from the near month contract to the far month contract
.
In the process, the 1609 contract rebounded weaker than the 1701 contract
.
The main reason is that the weakness of the spot market has inhibited the rebound height of the 1609 contract, and the production of tianjiao in January next year is in the off-season, and demand mainly relies on inventory to meet supply, which makes the bulls more confident in the 1701 contract
.
As a result, the spread between the 1701 and 1609 contracts was high, and the spread between the two contracts was as high as 2435 yuan / ton
on August 19.
This will continue until the delivery of the 1609 contract
.

In the first seven months of this year, the total output of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and other major producing countries increased by only 0.
2%, of which the output of Thai Tianjiao increased by 2.
1%, Indonesia increased by 0.
3%, Vietnam increased by 3.
2%, and Malaysia decreased by 4.
4%.

China fell 10.
9%.

In particular, on August 11, the International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) and the International Rubber Union (IRCO) reached an agreement in Bangkok to reduce exports by 75,750 tons of rubber and Indonesia by 9,350 tons from September to December 2016
.
As a result of Malaysia's better compliance with its commitments, there is no need for a new export reduction programme
.
This has greatly improved the oversupply state of the tianjiao market from the supply side, which is conducive to the rebound
of tianjiao prices.

In summary, the price of Shanghai rubber may show a gentle upward box oscillation trend in the later period, and it will last until early October
.