my country's oil refining overcapacity exceeds 200 million tons!

On June 29, the oil and gas sub-forum of the 2022 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference was held online
.
The guests exchanged views on the current industry situation, marine energy and unconventional natural gas development, commodities and economic cycles, etc.
, and made predictions on the future development of the industry
.
Experts said that in the short term, the market demand for oil and gas, especially refined oil products, is at a low level due to the impact of the international situation and the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
It will usher in a certain rebound in the second half of the year, but there will still be an oversupply situation
.
In the long run, the industry is constrained by the "dual carbon" policy and faces the risk of periodic and structural oversupply in the market.
The industry's demand for green and low-carbon transformation and high-quality development will become more urgent
.

According to Jiang Xuefeng, deputy dean of CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, China's GDP growth rate was 3.
5% in the first half of the year.
The economy will achieve a growth rate of 6% to 6.
5%, and the market demand for refined oil will also pick up
.
Among them, gasoline consumption is expected to reach 85.
8 million tons, an increase of about 11.
5% month-on-month; diesel consumption is expected to reach 103 million tons in the second half of the year due to the start of major infrastructure projects and the recovery of freight logistics, an increase of about 10% compared with the first half of the year; The demand for aviation kerosene will reach a relative peak as early as August.
In the second half of the year, kerosene consumption was 12.
8 million tons, an increase of about 3.
3 million tons compared with the first half of the year, a month-on-month increase of 35%, and still far below the pre-epidemic level
.

At the same time, from the perspective of supply, the supply structure of refined oil has not changed significantly
.
In the first half of the year, the output of refined oil was 197 million tons, which was higher than the demand of 18.
92 million tons
.
Jiang Xuefeng said that in the second half of the year, domestic production of refined oil products is expected to exceed demand by more than 16 million tons, and the overall market will still be in a state of oversupply
.

Xie Chaogang, a senior expert at Sinopec Group, said that in the long run, China's refining capacity is in a new cycle of rapid growth
.
In 2021, the national refining capacity is 910 million tons/year, and the excess capacity is about 200 million tons; it is expected that the refining capacity will increase to 1.
02 billion tons/year in 2025, and the problem of excess refining capacity will become more prominent in the future
.
On the other hand, with the development of engine technology and the deployment of new energy vehicles by major auto manufacturers, the consumption demand for refined oil will further decline
.

Ye Haichao, chief expert of Sinopec Petroleum Engineering Technology Research Institute, believes that the implementation of the "two-carbon" strategy will limit the demand for fossil energy.
At the same time, the development of energy-saving technologies and the use of clean energy will also squeeze the development space of fossil energy
.
According to the calculations of relevant departments, under the condition of sustainable development, China's oil demand will reach its peak before 2030, and its natural gas demand will reach its peak around 2040, and then decline rapidly
.
Before 2030, oil and gas exploration and development will remain active, so in the long run, the oversupply of oil and gas will become more obvious
.
China's oil and gas enterprises should speed up the low-carbonization of petroleum engineering business and the deployment of low-carbon energy service business.
On the basis of ensuring the safety of oil and gas supply, accelerate the coordinated development of new energy and oil and gas business, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation and development of enterprises
.

At the meeting, Dong Dazhong, senior engineer of China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute, and Guo Shengwei, vice president of CNOOC Energy Economics Research Institute and deputy chairman of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Professional Committee, respectively demonstrated China's energy transformation and development from two aspects: unconventional natural gas and marine energy.
future direction
.