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Recent domestic economic data have performed well, domestic inventories have fallen and consumer demand have also developed well, and aluminum prices have received upward support; In the first quarter, global aluminum production may be flat, and the aluminum market lacks more favorable support, and the upward momentum is insufficient
.
Futures aluminum trend, global economic growth slowdown concerns intensified, market risk aversion heating up helped the dollar index rise sharply, the base metal market trend was frustrated, and the price of London aluminum fell
under pressure.
The price trend of aluminum before the holiday maintained a downward trend
.
The market mainly focuses on the $1800 support level
.
Spot aluminum trend, domestic strict control of new production capacity, the national electrolytic aluminum production in March was 2.
981 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
5%, supply-side pressure has eased, spot aluminum prices have benefited
.
Spot aluminum prices fell when the market feared that China's easing policy would end, and uncertainty about China's economic development weighed on investor confidence
.
Inventory analysis, the trend of aluminum inventory before the holiday maintained a downward trend, the latest inventory reported 1020875 metric tons, a total of 26225 metric tons of inventory reduction, a decrease of about 2.
5%; The total weekly aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 638,030 tons, down 27,037 tons, or about 4.
1%,
from the previous week.
Macro information, domestically, China's economic growth in the first quarter surprised the outside world, and the International Monetary Fund raised China's growth forecast
.
Internationally, the United States officially canceled the policy of exemption for Iranian crude oil exports, and crude oil prices rose significantly in the second quarter
.
Aluminum market dynamics:
In January and March, the total global primary aluminum production rose to 5.
414 million tons, compared with 4.
916 million tons
in February.
2.
In February 2019, Russia exported 403,500 tons
of primary aluminum.
Compared to January, export volumes increased by 48% and 61.
7%
compared to the same period last year.
In the outlook for the future market, the decline in domestic inventories and the recovery of market demand supported the rise in aluminum prices, but the uncertainty of the global economic outlook caused market concerns to limit the rebound of aluminum prices, and the trend of spot aluminum prices during the week showed strong
shocks.
Loose macro environment, optimistic demand expectations, multiple favorable coexistence, help aluminum prices strong, the domestic market small long holiday, spot aluminum prices or maintain volatility
.
