MIBK's profit margin is difficult to improve

　　Since the beginning of the year, the methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) market has continued to be sluggish, and the profit margin has been narrowing
.
As of June 9, the profit of MIBK ton products has dropped to around 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), the lowest point since last year
.
Looking at the market outlook, industry analysts believe that the downstream demand will be difficult to pick up in the short term, and the superposition is deviating from the price trend of raw material acetone, and the profit margin of the MIBK market will be difficult to improve
.

　　Sufficient supply, price difficult to rise

　　In the second quarter of this year, after the restart of the 50,000-ton/year MIBK plant of Zhenjiang Li Changrong High Performance Materials Co.
, Ltd.
, the overall operating rate of the industry has increased, and the market supply is in a state of sufficient
.
Affected by the epidemic in the early period of Canada, the logistics and transportation were not smooth, and the holders of goods frequently reported low prices.
The MIBK market continued to open the window of decline.
The price fell from 13,800 to 14,000 yuan at the beginning of the quarter to 11,800 yuan on June 9
.

　　Zhang Qian, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that the current average operating rate of the MIBK industry has dropped to around 80%
.
Although some manufacturers have implemented maintenance, the overall MIBK market has not changed much, and the supply side is still sufficient
.
Recently, the 15,000-ton/year MIBK unit of Dongying Yimeide Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
was shut down for maintenance for one month, the 50,000-ton/year MIBK unit of Zhenjiang Li Changrong was operating at full capacity, the 15,000-ton/year MIBK unit of Zhejiang Zhenyang Development Co.
, Ltd.
, and the Jilin Petrochemical's 15,000-ton/year MIBK unit and Wanhua Chemical's 15,000-ton/year MIBK unit are in normal operation
.

　　Looking at the market outlook, at present, MIBK has no plans for overhaul or parking of production enterprises.
It is difficult to significantly reduce the operating rate of the industry, and the supply side is still sufficient
.
In addition, stockholders are more on the sidelines of the market, and downstream demand is in the off-season
.
In the context of the lack of negotiation atmosphere, it is unlikely that MIBK will rise sharply in the market outlook
.

　　High costs hinder transmission

　　From the perspective of the MIBK raw material acetone market, after the sideways consolidation in April, the acetone market reversed and opened higher in May under the guidance of the concentrated increase in factories
.
Up to now, the negotiated price of acetone in South China is 6300~6350 yuan
.
Raw material prices rose, and MIBK's cost support was strong, but the lack of downstream demand resulted in poor cost transmission
.

　　In May, the price of pure benzene increased by 600 yuan, and the price of propylene increased by 150 yuan, which caused the phenol and ketone industry to fall into a loss-making situation.
The maximum loss per ton of product reached 232 yuan
.
Since then, as the market price has pushed up, the current phenolic ketone has achieved a profit of about 500 yuan
.
For MIBK, due to insufficient downstream demand, the cost transfer was not smooth, and the rise in raw materials did not bring strong support, but the profit space was continuously squeezed.
Yuan
.

　　Bian Chenhui, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that the price of upstream raw materials for acetone remains high, and the downstream MMA plant has a commissioning plan, and the phenol ketone factory and stockholders are not in high mood.
It is expected that the domestic acetone market will still have room for improvement in June.
, then or will continue to squeeze MIBK profit margins
.

　　sluggish demand

　　The downstream of MIBK is mainly the rubber additives industry
.
Affected by the sluggish terminal demand, the inventory of tire enterprises is at a high level, and the enthusiasm of production enterprises is low, which makes the demand for rubber additives weakened and the market performance is not good
.

　　"Although the price of aniline, another raw material for rubber additives, has risen slightly tentatively, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the rubber additives market has maintained a weak trend
.
" Bian Chenhui analyzed that, specifically, the antioxidant RD market is relatively strong, but There was no significant boost in downstream demand, and the upward resistance was relatively large
.

　　Statistics from the terminal market show that in the first five months, the sales volume of heavy trucks in China dropped by 64% year-on-year
.
The sluggish terminal demand has led to the poor start of the downstream tire industry, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, resulting in an oversupply of antioxidants, and the market center of gravity continues to fall
.

　　According to statistics, in May, the operating rates of Chinese semi-steel tire and all-steel tire sample enterprises showed a downward trend from the previous month, with an amplitude of 3.
76% and 4.
64% respectively
.
The poor sales of downstream automobiles led to a rise in the inventory pressure of tire companies.
Some companies began to arrange equipment maintenance.
In addition, some companies stopped work and holiday during the Dragon Boat Festival, which dragged down the operating rate of sample companies
.

　　Regarding the market outlook, Bian Chenhui analyzed that according to the practice of previous years, tire companies will have maintenance or burden reduction arrangements in June, and the operating rate of some sample companies will have a downward trend
.
In addition, as the weather turns hot, the demand for the antioxidant industry may decrease, the operating rate will hardly increase, and the purchase of raw materials will shrink.
It is expected that the MIBK market will continue to weaken
.