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In the last month of 2020, methanol futures went out of a thrilling "roller coaster" market.
Supply pressure or increase
Supply pressure or increaseIn terms of domestic start-ups, environmental protection and natural gas-to-methanol plant production restrictions are still ongoing, coupled with the temporary shutdown of some methanol plants in the northwest region, resulting in the national methanol operating rate dropping to 69.
In terms of new production capacity, Shenhua Yulin, Yanchang China Coal, and Xinjiang Zotye plan to start production in January 2021.
In terms of imports, affected by natural gas restrictions, Iran’s methanol plant has undergone frequent maintenance and load reduction recently.
Weakening of traditional downstream demand
Weakening of traditional downstream demandRegarding MTO, although Ningbo Fude's device has a maintenance plan starting in mid-January 2021, as Jiangsu Shenghong's device restarts in early January 2021, it is expected that MTO demand will increase in January next year
In the traditional downstream, the operating rate of formaldehyde has declined weakly recently, and the operating rate dropped to 19.
Port inventory is difficult to accumulate significantly
Port inventory is difficult to accumulate significantlySince mid-August, the port inventory has been depleted as a whole
To sum up, if the new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, the overall start of the traditional downstream before the Spring Festival may be weakened, and it is expected that the price of methanol will not rise sharply
