Methanol will continue to rise

In short supply

This week, the spot price of methanol in the Mainland continued to rise, because the methanol-to-olefin plant of Inner Mongolia Zhongtian Hechuang resumed normal, the export of methanol ceased, and the sale of goods in the Mainland continued to decrease.

Mainland supply continues to be tight

At the beginning of the week, the 1.

Affected by environmental protection restrictions in winter, methanol plants with an annual capacity of about 3 million tons in Shanxi and Hebei have been abnormally started, and the load is low or production is suspended.

Due to the fact that supply is less than demand in the Mainland, the methanol market as a whole has entered a structure that is conducive to rising.

After the restart of the 300,000-ton/year methanol-to-olefins plant in Henan, the outsourcing of methanol increased significantly, and the saleable goods in Guanzhong of Henan and Shaanxi continued to decrease, which led to higher methanol prices in the Hubei, Hubei and Hubei, southern Shandong and northern Jiangsu.

Looking at the market outlook, due to the relative shortage of methanol supply in the inland areas, and the arbitrage in the East China port area is basically closed, the short-term domestic cargo cannot cause an impact on the port market, and the pressure in the port area has dropped sharply.

Methanol imports are gradually shrinking

From the supply-side analysis, the current domestic methanol plant operating rate is around 70%, which is relatively high.

　　From the demand side analysis, the domestic methanol traditional downstream start-up is uneven.
Formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE have been in low operating conditions, and the market outlook is unlikely to fall again.
The downstream operations of acetic acid, methane chloride, and DMF are relatively stable, and there is no possibility of a sharp decline in the short-term.
In emerging downstream markets, the overhaul of methanol-to-olefin plants is basically over, and only the Lianyungang area plans to overhaul in December.
Even if the plant is overhauled in Lianyungang, the overall start-up of methanol-to-olefins is higher than that of the same period last year.
It is difficult to overhaul the methanol-to-olefins plant in the northwest region in winter, and there is no maintenance plan.

　　At present, after methanol prices continue to rise, some downstream companies face losses, and the transmission of prices takes a certain period of time.
Short-term methanol may fall into oscillation.

　　To sum up, the current domestic methanol spot prices continue to rise, but the rise has slowed down, mainly because it takes a certain time for the rise in methanol prices to be transmitted to the downstream.
The supply and demand structure of the spot market still shows that supply is less than demand, and the basis for the decline in methanol prices does not exist.
With the further reduction of domestic supply, the shortage of the methanol market will continue, and the price of methanol will continue to rise.

Transfer from: Futures Daily

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