Methanol prices are expected to rise in 2021

The main methanol contract hit a two-year high of 2,562 yuan/ton on December 18, 2020, and then fell into a callback due to the rising macro risk aversion, and the current strong oscillation is currently strong.

In 2020, the average monthly operating rate of CTO/MTO devices is 81.
9%, an increase of 2 percentage points from 2019.
In 2019, due to the sharp drop in the price of methanol compared with 2018, the profit of the industrial chain shifted downstream, and the operating rate of CTO/MTO devices was already at a high level.
In 2020, the operating rate will be even higher.
In 2020, especially in the first three quarters, the weak methanol price and the strong olefin downstream products, the profit of the industry chain is concentrated in the downstream, the profit of methanol-to-olefins disk rose from 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2,700 yuan/ton at the beginning of August, and the company is enthusiastic about production.
Soaring.
It was not until the beginning of August that methanol's fundamentals improved marginally and prices rebounded, and the industrial chain profits began to rebalance.
Although the profit of methanol-to-olefins disk has fallen, it is still above the level of 1,500 yuan/ton.
It is worth noting that at present, there is limited room for further improvement in the operating rate of CTO/MTO devices.

We use the operating rate of the CTO/MTO unit to reverse the methanol demand: In 2020, the overall operating rate of the CTO/MTO unit will be 81.
9%, based on the 16.
05 million tons of CTO/MTO annual production capacity, 1:3 methanol consumption and 50% Calculated as a proportion of the demand for methanol, the demand for methanol in 2020 is 79 million tons.
In 2021, the number of new CTO/MTO plants is limited, and the operating rate is already at a high level.
The demand for methanol is expected to be 81.
7 million tons.

　　The problem of oversupply in the methanol market is expected to be greatly alleviated

　　Due to the overall oversupply, in 2020, methanol port inventories and mainland inventories will be at high levels.
The upstream of methanol is dominated by large-scale plants, while the downstream is a decentralized and intensive industry.
The downstream is more affected by the epidemic, and methanol demand has shrunk significantly.
Foreign companies are actively exporting, and methanol has flooded into my country's ports, causing the increase in coastal imports to far exceed the increase in demand in East China.
It was not until early August 2020 that the port began to destock.
Data show that as of December 9, 2020, domestic port methanol inventory was 1.
0762 million tons, which was 154,300 tons higher than the same period in 2019, and the situation of depots remains severe.
At the end of 2020, the storage fee for some tank farms in Taicang will be maintained at 3 yuan/ton/day.
In 2021, with the huge import volume, there may be a shortage of tank capacity.

　　In 2019, due to the continued high import volume and port inventory, the methanol market showed an oversupply pattern, with an oversupply of 180,000 tons throughout the year, and the price center shifted downward.
In 2020, the epidemic has led to sluggish traditional demand, domestic production and imports are sufficient, and the oversupply of methanol is intensified, with an estimated surplus of 940,000 tons.
In 2021, when the new crown vaccine comes out, the demand for methanol is expected to recover, and the oversupply will be narrowed.
It is estimated that the surplus of 50,000 tons will basically reach the balance of supply and demand, and the price center will also shift upward.

　　To sum up, in 2021, the oversupply of the methanol market will be greatly eased.
In addition to the slightly better macro environment, the center of gravity of the methanol index will also rise.
The annual operating range is expected to be 2000-2700 yuan/ton.
In addition, high port inventory causes high storage fees, which in turn leads to high premiums on far-month contracts.
It is expected that the methanol futures market in 2021 will show a positive trend.

Transfer from: Futures Daily