Metals were mixed, and Shanghai aluminum closed slightly higher

On the macro front, the domestic economy is facing greater downward pressure, the country tends to adopt loose monetary policy to support the economy, domestic market sentiment is expected to be preferred, and the net position of LME funds is at a historically high level
.

On the supply side, overseas, the European energy crisis has not yet eased, overseas electricity prices are high, and it will take a long time for aluminum plants to resume production; Domestically, dual control of energy consumption is still the main tone of the long term, and in the short term, affected by the Bose epidemic and the Winter Olympics, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is limited and reduced, and the supply is significantly affected
.
In addition, the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also caused the market to
expect supply to shrink.

On the demand side, in the short term, affected by many uncertainties overseas, LME 3-month aluminum showed a state of cargo premium, superimposed on domestic downstream enterprises starting work one after another, spot demand generally picked up
.
In the medium and long term, the central bank supports the economy, and demand for infrastructure and real estate is expected
to pick up.
On the cost side, the reduction in alumina production has led to another round of alumina prices, and the cost has risen
.

With the deregulation measures of Bose and the successful holding of the Winter Olympics, the subsequent production of alumina will resume, the supply pressure will be reduced, and there is still a chance
for aluminum prices to recover in the short term.
In the long run, it is expected that terminal demand will pick up at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, and the demand side will support the rapid destocking of inventory, and aluminum prices will have a large upside in the medium and long term
.