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Recently, the bearish atmosphere in the peripheral market is strong, the US stock market fell again overnight, the international oil price fell sharply, the overall trend of commodities was weak, and non-ferrous metals could not escape the decline
.
Today's intra-market metals fell across the board in early trading, while Shanghai copper fell slightly, down 0.
47%.
External metals also fell, with London copper slightly down 0.
02%.
On the macro front, the Fed's semi-annual report said that the risk of a sudden and significant deterioration in liquidity appears to be higher than normal
.
According to some indicators, liquidity in the newly issued US cash Treasury bonds and more recently stock index futures markets has declined
since the end of 2021.
This is one of the
reasons why the dollar has recently shown a sharp strength.
In addition, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has also caused a certain drag
on copper prices.
On the supply side, domestic copper mine TC fell slightly last week, but remained high overall, indicating that the mine supply may still be relatively wide, while Zijin's Kamoa copper mine in Congo has achieved commercial mass production since April, so overall TC prices may remain relatively high
.
In terms of smelting, due to the impact of the epidemic, some refineries have advanced maintenance to April, involving a total production capacity of 1.
5 million tons, according to SMM, electrolytic copper production in April was 827,300 tons, down 2.
5% month-on-month and 5.
7%
year-on-year.
However, due to the current high TC price, the price of sulfuric acid has also risen to the level of 1,000 yuan / ton, so from the perspective of smelting profits, refiners will still have high production enthusiasm, so if the epidemic can be controlled relatively limited, then in terms of smelting output, copper prices may also have a certain inhibition
.
In terms of demand, due to the impact of the current epidemic, the overall performance of demand is difficult to be optimistic, and the future market needs to pay attention to the investment in the infrastructure sector and the effect
of local real estate support.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks fell by 0.
01 million tonnes to 169,100 tonnes and SHFE stocks by 01,400 tonnes to 15,200 tonnes
.
Overall, the current Fed interest rate hike environment is relatively unfavorable for copper prices, and although there are relatively strong expectations on the domestic demand side, whether such strong expectations can be fulfilled is the focus
of the future market.
Unilateral opportunities may be relatively difficult to grasp for the time being, but you can try to carry out internal and external arbitrage operations
against the background of the relatively pressure of the US dollar and the RMB.
