May 8 Shanghai aluminum morning review

On the macro front, China's foreign exchange reserves in April were US$3,029.
53 billion, rising
for the third consecutive month.
US: Fed maintains interest rates in line with expectations; It is also expected that its economy will expand moderately and will raise interest rates gradually; 2.
The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in April was 211,000, +190,000
expected.
Eurozone: Eurozone manufacturing PMI final value for April was 56.
7, a record high, 56.
8 expected; Eurozone Q1 GDP preliminary value +0.
5% month-on-month, in line with expectations; Macron's victory in the French presidential election is conducive to the political stability
of the eurozone.
Overall, macroscopic factors have more influence on non-ferrous metals
.

From a fundamental point of view, domestic alumina is still weak at this stage, and the continuous decline in prices makes the cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises have better profit space than the price of electrolytic aluminum, stimulating enterprises to maintain high operating enthusiasm
.
The growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production in April will also continue to be maintained, and the supply side is still facing severe release pressure
.
However, looking at demand, the overall performance may not be as good as expected
.
Therefore, the high level of social inventory remains stable, the inventory of domestic exchanges continues to increase, and the pattern of weak fundamentals will continue
.
However, short-term policy rumors in Shandong Province have rekindled the market's hopes and hopes for policies, but they have not seen the actual elimination of production capacity, and the market needs to wait for the specific situation
of the policy.
Therefore, aluminum prices or maintain a narrow range of volatility, long and short need to wait for the clarity of the policy, it is recommended that the stop loss of the light short order 1707 contract be moved down to 14100 yuan / ton
.