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Brief comment on the aluminum market, yesterday's LME closed, Shanghai copper opened nearly 3% lower in the morning, and then gradually rebounded overnight to recover lost ground, closing at 48260
overnight.
The risk of escalation of the trade war is still the main macro bearish point in the short term, but the counter-cyclical adjustment policy may have a certain hedging effect
.
From a fundamental point of view, TC temporarily stabilized at the bottom, the shortage of copper concentrate has not yet been reflected in the smelters who signed long orders, and the smelter was overhauled in the second quarter, but the new production capacity is gradually being released, and the second half of the year will be more obvious, the main power grid and automobile performance of the consumer side are weak, and the risk of weakening copper fundamentals in the medium term is higher
.
Inventory changes: LME stocks 228,200 tons (0), previous stocks 219,700 tons (-1.
7), Shanghai Free Trade Zone 592,000 tons (-2.
1).
Under the influence of short-term macro risks and weakening long-term fundamentals, it is recommended to still treat copper with a short idea, unilateral operation is recommended to sell short above 49000, and the strategy of early short options CU1906C52000 and CU1907C52000 can still be held, with a cumulative yield of 3.
84%.
