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Copper market morning comment: The main Shanghai copper futures contract fell 0.
78% to 72,760 yuan a ton
on Thursday.
On the macro front, the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled, announced that it would start reducing its balance sheet in June, and intensified its balance sheet reduction three months later
.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that a 50 basis point rate hike at each of the next two monetary policy meetings is possible, and did not actively consider a 75 basis point
rate hike.
The market saw Powell's speech as dovish, with non-ferrous metals rebounding
after bottoming.
Fundamentally, satellite monitoring data for copper smelters showed an increase
in global copper smelting activity in April despite China's pandemic containment measures.
The monthly activity index of global copper smelters rose to 48.
7
in April from 47.
9 in March.
The only regions above 50 points in South America, Asia and Oceania, Europe and Africa, where planned maintenance leads to lower generation rates, with an activity index of 39.
6
.
The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) expects a surplus of 142,000 tonnes in the global copper market this year and 352,000 tonnes in 2023
.
In summary, the US manufacturing index, which continues to decline in the macro aspect, has cast a shadow over economic development, and despite certain disturbances on the supply side of copper mines, ICSG still gives a forecast of oversupply throughout 2022
.
Copper prices remain bearish
in the medium to long term.
