May 2018 cable raw materials (copper) monthly report

Domestically,

1.
Fixed investment showed a slowdown, and the National Bureau of Statistics announced that fixed asset investment from January to April increased by 7.
0%, lower than the expected 7.
4%.

Demand showed a weak pattern, and the growth rate of real estate investment weakened further, with the official real estate investment in April at 10.
3%, lower than the previous value of 10.
4%.

The market generally expects that the inflection point of the housing market has arrived, and in the later period, under the dual pressure of tightening financial supervision and real estate regulation, the domestic real estate market may further fall, and the resulting housing market sales or housing market starts may further weaken.

2.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the official manufacturing PMI in May was 51.
9, higher than 51.
4 in April, and higher than market expectations, and the economy once again showed strong resilience, which repaired the pessimism in the previous period to a certain extent
.

March and May Caixin manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' index) came in at 51.
1, slightly lower than expectations of 51.
2 and unchanged from the previous reading of 51.
1
.
However, the indicator is still in a good economic range, and has been in the expansion range for a consecutive year, indicating that the manufacturing industry continues to improve
slightly.

4.
Sino-US trade frictions have further cooled down, China issued a statement on Sino-US economic and trade consultations, and there have been positive and concrete progress in agriculture, energy and other fields, such as the introduction of trade sanctions such as tariffs by the United States, and the results of the negotiations will not take effect
.
Overall, in view of the recovery of domestic macro data, the further easing of Sino-US trade frictions, and commodity prices have been supported
to certain extent.

Abroad,

1.
The US industrial operation is still strong, the ISM manufacturing index showed a strong rebound in May, and the price index hit a seven-year high
.
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the ISM manufacturing index in the United States was 58.
7 in May, better than the expected 58.
2
.
Among them, the important sub-data such as new orders, employment and production were better than expected, and the price index once again updated its highest level
since April 2011.

2.
Strong job market activity, recently released non-farm payrolls data showed that the United States added 223,000 non-farm payrolls in May, far exceeding expectations, in addition, the unemployment rate fell to 3.
8%, an 18-year low
.
Given the current strong economic data from the United States, this will provide a solid basis
for the conditions needed to raise interest rates in June.
According to the survey results released by the University of Michigan, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May was 98.
8, better than the expected 98.
3, and unchanged from the final value in April, up 1.
8%
year-on-year.
However, inflation in April was less than expected, with the US CPI 0.
2% m/m in April, below expectations of 0.
3%, and the April core CPI 2.
1% y/y, below expectations of 2.
2%.

3.
U.
S.
economic data remains strong, with a gradual
pace of interest rate hikes in June.
Although the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting announced that the federal funds rate was unchanged and released a dovish signal, the market expects a higher probability of a rate hike in June, and with the gradual pace of US interest rate hikes in mid-June, risk aversion in the commodity market may gradually ferment, which will weigh on commodity prices
to some extent.

2.
Analysis of this month's market trend