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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternational: the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 234,000, the previous value was 232,000, and the estimated value was 238,000; the US housing price index in March was 0.
6% m/m, the previous value was 0.
8%, and the estimated value was 0.
6%; US housing price index 0.
6% m/m for March, 0.
8% prior, 0.
6% estimate; The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was 52.
5, 52.
8 prior, 53.
1 estimated; the U.
S.
May Markit Services PMI was 54, prior: 53.
1, estimated 53.
3; the U.
S.
May Markit Composite PMI was 53.
9, prior: 53.
2; and the U.
S.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May was 1, prior: 20, estimated 15
.
Services sector activity grew at the fastest pace this year in May, buoyed by domestic demand, but manufacturing underperformed
.
Domestic: Statistics show that in April, the year-on-year increase in the price of new commercial housing in 15 first-tier and hot second-tier cities across the country all fell, with 5 cities falling month-on-month, 4 cities flat, and 5 of the other 6 rising cities also had a shrinking increase, and only Wuhan rose slightly
.
Moody's, a well-known international credit rating agency, downgraded China's rating from Aa3 to A1, and the market was worried about the cooling of China's economy, but then China's Ministry of Finance responded that Moody's lacked the necessary understanding of the provisions of China's legal system, and some claims were simply not valid
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the domestic copper price fluctuated in May, and the price first fell and then rose during the month, and the overall trend was relatively weak
.
Represented by the spot market of the Yangtze River nonferrous metals, the copper price at the beginning of the month (May 2) was 46870 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month was 45530 yuan / ton, down 1340 yuan, or 2.
86%.
Macro: Domestically, China's economic data released this month was slightly sluggish, including a comprehensive slowdown in manufacturing data indicators in April, while the economic downturn dragged down the property market, statistics show that the year-on-year increase in new commercial housing prices in first- and second-tier cities across the country in April all fell
.
The tightening pace of China's manufacturing expansion signaled weakness in its industrial metal demand, and copper prices came under pressure and lacked
upside.
Abroad, with the continuous fermentation of the "leak door" incident, the American people have begun to question Trump's ability to govern, coupled with the few political achievements since taking office, the domestic call for his impeachment is getting higher
and higher.
According to data from investigative institutions, the risk of Trump's impeachment has soared by 50%, the political turmoil in the United States has soared market risk aversion, commodity prices have been under overall pressure since this month, and futures copper prices have been weak
.
Market: Spot copper prices fell first and then rose this month, and overall performance was weak
.
Since the profit window for imported copper this year has been closed for a long time, there are actually not many domestic imported copper sources this year, as can be seen
from the April refined copper import data released by customs that fell by 40% year-on-year.
The reduction in imported copper sources has made the supply side of the domestic market slightly tight, so this week's willingness of holders to hold up prices and shipments is stronger, and spot copper discounts have not fallen sharply
.
As the market fear is still strong, the downstream sentiment is still cautious, although there are merchants entering the market to stock up before the holiday, but it is also maintained on demand, and a large number of replenishment of inventory is relatively limited
.
In addition, under the influence of low spot copper discount and month-end capital factors, traders are also cautious in entering the market, and the overall market at the end of the month shows a posture of supply and demand
.
With the end of May, it is expected that the market demand side will still be difficult to improve in June, and this supply-demand stalemate may continue for some time
.
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