May 20 aluminum market brief comment

Today's Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract opened at 12830 yuan / ton in the morning, the early shock upward briefly touched 12925 yuan / ton, and then first sank slightly to 12850 yuan / ton around the accumulator, the second trading stage began the second wave of upward testing within the day, the high finally tested 12935 yuan / ton, the end of the session sinked, closed at 12875 yuan / ton, the daily close flat, closed at the small white line, recorded six consecutive Yang, the center of gravity is above all moving averages, from the daily K-line trend, the resistance of the upper 10,000 mark still exists, The center of gravity of the white candlestick is moving slowly upward, touching the upper Bollinger band, and it is expected to continue to test the size of the upper space, paying attention to market trading sentiment and changes in long and short positions
.

Recently, with the continuous rise of the in-situ conversion rate of aluminum water, the supply has remained tight in recent months, and the arrival of aluminum ingots in consumption is still limited
.
The market circulation is tight, showing a situation of less connection and more, spot premiums continue to rise, and the basis is strong and difficult to change
in the short term.
At present, the orders of downstream aluminum processing enterprises in May are generally good, and although the orders in June are likely to weaken month-on-month, they can still maintain a good state
.
Therefore, with the gradual easing of the domestic epidemic, the strong release of domestic demand, the continuous strong destocking of fundamentals, and good demand also supported the price of Shanghai aluminum
.

On the whole, in the short-term market long-short game stage, supported by fundamentals, aluminum prices will show a rising trend this week
.
However, the recent sustained rise has exceeded market expectations, and it is necessary to pay attention to concerns about price corrections and signals
released by macro policies.
It is expected that the operating range of the main contract is 12700-13100 yuan / ton
.