Market worries still exist Aluminum market consumption is difficult to break out

On the macro front, emerging markets such as Argentina and Turkey have fallen into crisis this week, and currencies have continued to depreciate, causing market worries
.
The US non-farm payrolls data continues to be strong, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again this year to reduce its balance sheet
.
China's recent economic data continues to be poor, and the market is still watching the follow-up fiscal easing measures
.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the off-season superimposed on the impact of the trade war and the real estate deleveraging stage, the overall consumption is weak, the supply-side output remains flexible production, and the overall industrial chain maintains a weak supply and demand situation; Spot inventories of aluminum ingots fell slightly by 20,000 tons to about 1.
62 million tons, and aluminum rod stocks continued to grow to nearly 130,000 tons
.

Inventory changes, Lun aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly to about 1.
06 million tons, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts was close to 27%; Aluminum inventories in the previous period continued to decline to less than
880,000 tons.
During the week, aluminum ingot stocks fell slightly again by 20,000 tons to about
1.
62 million tons.
Aluminum rod stocks increased to nearly 130,000 tons
.
The overall destocking process is slow
.

Recently, the market has focused on the shortage of overseas alumina supply, resulting in China's export of alumina, which in turn has triggered the tight supply of domestic alumina, coupled with the problem of 2+26 peak shift production and production restrictions, which has triggered the expectation of continuous price increases of alumina in the future
.
Cost support needs to be eventually achieved by leading to a reduction in finished product production, and it needs to be combined with demand-side analysis to comprehensively affect the price, downstream demand is affected by the decline in the real estate industry continues to be poor, it is difficult to form effective support, so aluminum prices are difficult to have explosive performance
.

With the advent of the traditional consumption season of Jinjiuyin and the superimposed 2+26 winter peak shift production limit, the supply and demand of domestic aluminum ingots is expected to improve
without the influence of other factors.
However, the biggest uncertainty still comes from the progress of the Sino-US trade war, and the escalating situation has caused continuous suppression of commodity prices, and it is difficult for aluminum prices to break out until
this factor is clearly improved.
After a continuous decline, aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in range next week and recover slightly, for reference
only.
Continue to pay attention to the progress of the Sino-US trade war and changes in domestic export support policies
.

From the perspective of futures, Hulun aluminum has given up all the speculation, cost support gains, the center of gravity of domestic aluminum prices from around 14200 all the way to around 15000 again under pressure to fall, still failed to break through the 14200-15200 shock range from the end of last year
.